California PEV registration analysis thru 2012

California PEV registration analysis thru 2012

Posted on

Thu, 06/27/2013 - 9:14am

by Brett Williams

By the end of 2012, there were over 26,000 light-duty PEVs on California roads representing $1 billion in gross revenues…

A new resource is now available on the UCLA Luskin Center EV Initiative's Market Dynamics page. This presentation includes facts and figures characterizing the California registration[1] of over 26,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) during the period 12/1/2012 thru 12/31/2012.

  • This cumulative PEV fleet on California roads is capable of using its over 504,000 kilowatt-hours of batteries to drive over 1.4 million EPA-rated electric miles each time it recharges.

What are the best-selling PEVs in California?

  • By the end of 2012, over 8,000 Chevy Volts were on California roads, the largest number of any PEV model.
  • Two relatively new PEVs experienced rapid sales, the Prius Plug-in (released in March 2012) and the Tesla Model S (released in June 2012). Each was able to capture a relatively large share of cumulative sales in a short time. (Note that the Prius hybrid is the best-selling car in California, and that Tesla is based in California and the Model S is made in California.)

How does California differ from the U.S. as a whole?

  • Although plug-in hybrids also dominate California PEV registrations (with a 59% share), Californians drive a greater percentage of all-battery vehicles (BEVs) than the nation as a whole. 41% of the vehicles in the California registration data were BEVs, compared to 35% of total U.S. sales over the same time period. This is to be expected due to California policies incentivizing and requiring manufacturers to deliver for sale “pure” zero-tailpipe-emission vehicles.  Accordingly, several model release schedules begin in California before expanding nationwide.
  • Further, BEVs registered in California accounted for a full 43% of U.S. total BEV sales.

What about PHEVs and PEVs as a whole? What portion of U.S. sales do California registrations account for?

  • The California registration share of U.S. total sales was 34% for plug-in hybrids and 37% for plug-in vehicles as a whole.

How do California PEVs compare to gasoline-only hybrids?

  • Acknowledging a decade of differences, the introduction of California PEVs starting in 2010 dramatically outpaced the introduction of California gasoline-only hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) starting in 1999. In the first three years of introduction, California PEV registrations (2010–2012) not only dramatically outpaced California HEV registrations (1999–2001), but nearly kept up with total U.S. HEV registrations (1999–2001).

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Background:

Are EV sales really disappointing?  That may be a matter of expectations (more on this in the blog entry "Managing EV Expectations").  But what are the facts so far? There are now over 100,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) on U.S. roads.  And by some measures, PEVs are off to a much better start than gasoline-only hybrids were a decade ago.  U.S. PEVs represent $4 billion in gross revenues (and the Volt alone $1.5 billion).  Learn more from ongoing Luskin research, to be updated monthly, characterizing PEV sales from December 2010 to the present.



[1] Based on analysis of registration data obtained from RL Polk & Co.

 

by Brett Williams

By the end of 2012, there were over 26,000 light-duty PEVs on California roads representing $1 billion in gross revenues…

A new resource is now available on the UCLA Luskin Center EV Initiative's Market Dynamics page. This presentation includes facts and figures characterizing the California registration[1] of over 26,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) during the period 12/1/2012 thru 12/31/2012.