This election brief examines the critical juncture facing Bangladesh as it approaches the February 12, 2026, general election and concurrent referendum on the “July Charter.” Following the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent transition to an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh seeks to reverse a two-decade trend of democratic backsliding and stagnant state capacity. Utilizing data from the Berggruen Governance Index, this analysis highlights a striking paradox: while democratic accountability and state capacity have significantly withered since 2000, public goods provision has reached record highs, driven by a highly concentrated, export-oriented textile model and growing public debt.

The report evaluates the sustainability of this “authoritarian developmentalism” in a deteriorating international environment characterized by U.S. protectionism and regional instability. It concludes that while the proposed constitutional reforms offer a framework for long-term stability, Bangladesh’s path to reconciling economic growth with democratic liberty remains precarious, requiring a departure from historical East Asian developmental models to suit a more fragmented geopolitical reality.

Read the full report.