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Segura on Biden’s Strategy to Win Over California

UCLA Luskin Dean Gary Segura spoke to USA Today about presidential candidate Joe Biden’s strategy to persuade California Democrats that he deserves their support. As the front-runner in several polls, the former vice president has presented himself as the most electable candidate, but his rivals counter that middle-ground politics will not inspire the passion needed to beat President Trump. Segura, who co-founded the polling and political analysis firm Latino Decisions, said Biden would be wise to emphasize his core beliefs. “His argument should start with, ‘There’s a reason I’m the most popular candidate and it’s that the preponderance of the Democratic electorate agrees with me on most issues — and, in fact, the preponderance of other Democratic candidates agree with me on most issues,’ ” Segura said. “He can better frame the argument by drawing attention to the fact that there is a huge portion of the American public that sees him as the logical, rational alternative to what we’ve been experiencing under Trump.”


 

Tilly on Selective Use of Wage Statistics

Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to FactCheck.org about presidential candidates’ selective use of statistics to describe U.S. wages as rising, sinking or flat. Different variables — including how to adjust for inflation and which base year to choose for comparison — can lead to different conclusions. President Trump has said that “wages are rising at the fastest rate in a decade,” while Sen. Bernie Sanders has said that “the average American today has not seen a nickel more in real wages than he or she got 45 years ago.” Tilly weighed in on Sen. Cory Booker’s claim that wages are at a 60-year low, a possible reference to wages as a percentage of gross domestic income — a measure of workers’ share of the economic pie. This is a different but legitimate way of looking at wages and salaries, Tilly said, noting that it reveals what workers are getting “relative to other kinds of income recipients in the economy.”


 

Yaroslavsky on the Impact of a Garcetti Endorsement

Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, was quoted in a McClatchy article about the potential impact of a political endorsement by L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti.  The mayor has appeared at campaign events with some of the Democrats vying to be their party’s 2020 nominee for president, but he is reportedly torn over whether to endorse one before California’s March 3 primary. In a tight race, Garcetti’s endorsement “could make a difference,” Yaroslavsky said. “It would be a one- or two-day headline, and it could give somebody momentum.” An endorsement would be valuable in Los Angeles’ notoriously expensive media market and could solidify interest from donors and organizers, the article noted. Yaroslavsky said the fluid nature of the primary “may be one of the reasons he’s holding out. Maybe one or two of his favorites fall by the wayside and then he doesn’t have to alienate anybody.”


 

Diaz on Trends Shaping the 2020 Campaign

Sonja Diaz, executive director of the Latino Policy and Politics Initiative at UCLA Luskin, spoke to Minnesota Public Radio about voting trends shaping the 2020 presidential campaign. “Voter turnout in 2020 is slated to reach the highest it’s been in decades, and this includes a surge of new voters, which will potentially produce the most diverse electorate in this country’s history,” said Diaz, citing research conducted by LPPI and other organizations. Minority populations are growing steadily in existing and emerging battleground states such Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas, she said, and “that’s where 2020 could be decided.” Diaz also weighed in on continuing threats to the democratic process. “We’re going into an election where there have been massive attempts by states to roll back access to the ballot box,” she said, but added that election officials across the country are working resolutely to protect their voting protocols from interference.


 

California Is Up for Grabs, Yaroslavsky Says

Director of the Los Angeles Initiative Zev Yaroslavsky spoke to the Guardian about the political climate surrounding the California Democratic Party Convention, a three-day gathering that took place in San Francisco. Fourteen Democratic presidential candidates for the 2020 election converged at the convention in hopes of securing support from California voters. Yaroslavsky described California as “the leader of the resistance to Trump,” where voters “care more about replacing Trump than about where someone fits ideologically.” Yaroslavsky predicted that California will play a critical role in the 2020 election, explaining that “whether it’s on healthcare, the environment or offshore drilling, disaster aid or a woman’s right to choose, from A to Z, [President Donald Trump] is always looking for ways to punish California. … There’s a lot at stake for California in this election.” According to Yaroslavsky, “California is up for grabs and it’s likely to be up for grabs for some time.”