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A President’s Economic Record Is ‘Heavily Dominated by Luck’

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Two United Press International stories about the economic records of Joe Biden and Donald Trump called on UCLA Luskin Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly for insights. Tilly assessed the economic principles surrounding measures such as tax cuts and infrastructure investments, but also pointed out that the role a president plays in the fiscal health of the country is often overstated. “We tend to give presidents too much credit or blame,” he said. “Most of what is going on in the economy is not something the president can control.” The United States is one cog in a global economy that can be roiled by war, political turmoil, weather emergencies and catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. ”The economic record of a four-year period is heavily dominated by luck, good or bad,” Tilly said.

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Wooing the Fast-Growing Latino Electorate

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UCLA Luskin Public Policy Professor Gary Segura spoke to the Pennsylvania Capital-Star and public radio station WITF about the fast-growing segment of Latino voters who are a key target for 2024 elections. Economic issues, particularly concerns about better pay and the cost of prescriptions and health insurance, are a top priority for Latinos in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a survey conducted by BSP Research, co-founded by Segura. “Latinos are often worried that their jobs don’t pay well enough, or they have to take a second job in order to make ends meet,” Segura said. He noted that Pennsylvania’s Latino electorate includes a substantial number of Puerto Ricans, a group that historically has leaned Democratic. However, many Latino voters feel that neither of the two main U.S. political parties has shown sufficient interest in connecting with them, according to the national survey conducted on behalf of UnidosUS.

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Torres-Gil on Ageism in Electoral Politics

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Fernando Torres-Gil, professor emeritus of social welfare and public policy at UCLA Luskin, spoke to USA Today about ageism in electoral politics. At 81, Joe Biden is the oldest president in U.S. history, and polls indicate that some voters view his age as a liability. Yet these concerns are not routinely aired in conversations about other politicians from Biden’s generation, including Donald Trump, 77, and Bernie Sanders, 82. “I think it has a lot to do just with style and personality, how you are perceived” — and appearances can be superficial, said Torres-Gil, director of the UCLA Center for Policy Research on Aging. “We still have a relatively ageist and ableist society where if you look old and act disabled, it creates a more negative impression.”

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Yaroslavsky on California’s ‘Formidable’ Pick for U.S. Senate

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Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, spoke to CBS Los Angeles about the appointment of Laphonza Butler as California’s next senator. Butler, who has deep experience in Democratic politics as a campaign strategist and labor organizer, was selected by Gov. Gavin Newsom to fill the seat of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein. “Laphonza Butler is a very serious and formidable individual in whatever position she takes,” said Yaroslavsky, who worked closely with Butler when she was a Los Angeles labor leader and he a county supervisor. Her work in the labor, nonprofit and private sectors demonstrated her “tremendous leadership qualities,” he said. The appointment fulfill’s Newsom’s vow that his next Senate appointment would be a Black woman. Said Yaroslavsky, “I don’t look at her just as an African American woman, I look at her as a formidable human being who has paid a lot of dues so far in her young life.” 

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Anheier on Long Road Back to a Stable Democracy

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A front-page New York Times story on international allies’ concern that the United States is sliding away from its core democratic values cited Helmut Anheier, adjunct professor of social welfare and public policy. Scholars, officials and voters from both longstanding and emerging democracies expressed alarm about America’s direction, pointing to some citizens’ rejection of a peaceful transfer of power, attempts to block access to the ballot box and a Supreme Court that appears to be swayed by party politics. “It’s like watching a family member, for whom you have enormous affection, engage in self-harm,” one foreign leader said. Anheier, a principal investigator for the Berggruen Governance Index, a study of 134 countries in which America sits below Poland in quality of life, noted, “The United States did not get into the position where it is now overnight. It took a while to get there, and it will take a while to get out.”

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Turner on Combating Crime With Racial Justice

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A Los Angeles Times column arguing that Democrats have failed to convincingly address voters’ concerns about crime cited David C. Turner III, assistant professor of social welfare. The GOP’s midterm messaging casting Democrats as soft on crime is largely aimed at a white audience, but many people of color also fear that they or their families will be the victims of violence. The column noted that 81% of Black voters and about 65% of Latino voters cite crime as a top issue. Rather than a militarized response, these communities seek proposals for preventing violent crime, such as after-school programs and job opportunities for young people, said Turner, whose scholarship focuses on Black life and racial justice. “We don’t want increased police presence, because what the research has shown is that regardless of socioeconomic status, increased police presence is not good for any Black community,” he said.

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Yaroslavsky on L.A.’s ‘Confounding Election’

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Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, spoke to media outlets including Governing and the Financial Times about the contest between Karen Bass and Rick Caruso to become L.A.’s next mayor. While housing, homelessness and public safety have been central issues in the campaign, the leaked audio of City Council members using racist language has become a wild-card factor. The recording contributed to “a sense that the city is broken,” Yaroslavsky said, but he added that it’s not clear whether voters will be motivated to “kick out the bums” or stay home out of cynicism. “You have a city that has changed and a population that is willing to elect people that don’t necessarily look like them — and then this happens, and the danger is that people revert back to their camps,” he said. “It’s really one of the most confounding elections I can remember.” Yaroslavsky also spoke with CBS Los Angeles about the impact rainy weather could have on voter turnout.

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Segura on Misguided Assumptions About Latino Voters

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UCLA Luskin Dean Gary Segura spoke to the Los Angeles Times about shifts in Democratic campaign strategies to win the Latino vote. After the reversal of Roe v. Wade, many Democratic candidates are emphasizing abortion rights, discarding the conventional wisdom that the Latino electorate is too socially conservative to be receptive to the platform. “These incorrect assumptions have lasted for a long time, and they have been incorrect for a long time,” said Segura, who has conducted extensive polling research. Political strategists who previously concluded that predominantly Catholic Latino voters would remain staunchly opposed to abortion rights missed nuances among the electorate. While individual voters may have personal convictions against abortion, many draw the line at government intervention that curbs the rights of the people.

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Yaroslavsky Assesses Candidates’ Plans for Tackling Homelessness

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Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, spoke to the Los Angeles Times about plans to combat homelessness put forth by Karen Bass and Rick Caruso, who are vying to become L.A.’s next mayor. With Election Day two months away, the candidates have offered details about their ambitious proposals for sheltering the city’s unhoused, including cost estimates and strategies for clearing bureaucratic hurdles. “I don’t think either of those plans will accomplish what they say they are going to accomplish in a year … but I think it’s good to set the goal,” said Yaroslavsky, who served as a city councilman and county supervisor in his decades of public service. Yaroslavsky proposed a single, countywide homelessness executive empowered to budget money and make land-use decisions. “Let the city and the county create a new paradigm, set a new template of political collaboration and cooperation and effectiveness,” he said.

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Pivotal Role for Latino Voters in 2022 Midterms

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The Latino electorate played a decisive role in key U.S. Senate races in 2020 and will again be crucial in determining outcomes in the 2022 midterm elections, according to a report published by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute. The report analyzed the choices of Latinos in 2020 Senate elections in five states where Latino voters were pivotal either because of their large numbers or the part they played in close races: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New Mexico and Texas. In all these states, Latino voters in 2020 supported Democratic Senate candidates by wide margins, yet a considerable number — between 2% and 10%, depending on the state — split their ballots between parties when choosing Senate and presidential candidates. These swing voters will likely be a critical segment in this year’s midterm elections, particularly in states like Arizona and Georgia where Senate races are currently considered toss-ups, the report’s authors said. The power of the Latino electorate is growing rapidly, with more than 1 million Latinos coming of voting age each year. Determining the future balance of power in the currently divided Senate and elsewhere will depend heavily on efforts to get out the Latino vote, said the institute’s founding director, Sonja Diaz. “Voting patterns show the critical role Latinos play in pivotal midterm elections, but these votes must be earned,” Diaz said. “Campaigns for House and Senate seats should ensure they are reaching the Latino electorate by addressing the needs of this community and utilizing tailored outreach techniques proven to result in voter mobilization.” — Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas

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