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Wooing the Fast-Growing Latino Electorate

UCLA Luskin Public Policy Professor Gary Segura spoke to the Pennsylvania Capital-Star and public radio station WITF about the fast-growing segment of Latino voters who are a key target for 2024 elections. Economic issues, particularly concerns about better pay and the cost of prescriptions and health insurance, are a top priority for Latinos in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a survey conducted by BSP Research, co-founded by Segura. “Latinos are often worried that their jobs don’t pay well enough, or they have to take a second job in order to make ends meet,” Segura said. He noted that Pennsylvania’s Latino electorate includes a substantial number of Puerto Ricans, a group that historically has leaned Democratic. However, many Latino voters feel that neither of the two main U.S. political parties has shown sufficient interest in connecting with them, according to the national survey conducted on behalf of UnidosUS.


 

Diaz on Fair Representation and Latino Voting Power

Sonja Diaz, executive director of the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute, spoke to media outlets following the midterm elections, weighing in on issues including fair representation and the impact of the Latino vote at the local, state and national level. A Los Angeles Times article on the reelection of Sen. Alex Padilla emphasized the significance of a Southern Californian in the powerful position after three decades of Bay Area Democrats holding the state’s Senate seats. Diaz noted that Padilla brings greater urgency to issues facing urban communities of color, including immigration and the environment. She was also cited in an L.A. Times column on Latinos’ party preferences and an editorial calling for an increase in the size of the Los Angeles City Council. On KCRW’s “Press Play,” Diaz described the Latino electorate’s alliance with other diverse voting blocs, harkening back to the broad coalition that propelled Barack Obama into the presidency.


 

Segura on Misguided Assumptions About Latino Voters

UCLA Luskin Dean Gary Segura spoke to the Los Angeles Times about shifts in Democratic campaign strategies to win the Latino vote. After the reversal of Roe v. Wade, many Democratic candidates are emphasizing abortion rights, discarding the conventional wisdom that the Latino electorate is too socially conservative to be receptive to the platform. “These incorrect assumptions have lasted for a long time, and they have been incorrect for a long time,” said Segura, who has conducted extensive polling research. Political strategists who previously concluded that predominantly Catholic Latino voters would remain staunchly opposed to abortion rights missed nuances among the electorate. While individual voters may have personal convictions against abortion, many draw the line at government intervention that curbs the rights of the people.


 

Missed Opportunity to Deepen Connection With Latino Voters

A Los Angeles Times op-ed about the Rick Caruso mayoral campaign’s outreach to Latino communities cited Sonja Diaz, executive director of the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute. Running as an outsider, Caruso is courting segments of the Latino vote that include moderate Democrats, independents, Catholics and others, raising the question of whether L.A.’s established political class understands that Latinos have a variety of political viewpoints. “We know Latinos are not a monolith,” Diaz said, “but does the California Democratic Party know the difference between Latinos in Sun Valley, Pacoima, Van Nuys, west of the 110 or east of the 110, Northeast and East L.A.?” Around the country, Republicans have made inroads with Latino voters while Democrats have missed opportunities to build the national profile of top elected leaders, Diaz noted in an Elle profile of Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, the only Latina in the U.S. Senate.


 

On the Complex Dynamics of the Latino Vote

The Boston Globe highlighted findings from a UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute (LPPI) report that identified the complex dynamics of the Latino vote in the 2020 elections, with lessons for campaign strategists in this fall’s midterm elections. Latino voters are the new swing voters, but the Democratic Party seems to be in denial about this insight, the Globe columnist wrote. Researchers found that Latino voters split their ballot at a significant rate in 2020. “They are convincible, you can go out and reach out to them, and they’ll think about their vote carefully,” said Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas, LPPI’s director of research. “They will eventually make a decision based on what resonates the most with them, but also on who engages them the most.” Dominguez-Villegas said some Democratic campaigns still use an outdated, one-size-fits-all approach to Latino engagement without recognizing inherent differences between, say, voters of Venezuelan descent and second-generation Mexican-Americans.


 

Pivotal Role for Latino Voters in 2022 Midterms

The Latino electorate played a decisive role in key U.S. Senate races in 2020 and will again be crucial in determining outcomes in the 2022 midterm elections, according to a report published by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute. The report analyzed the choices of Latinos in 2020 Senate elections in five states where Latino voters were pivotal either because of their large numbers or the part they played in close races: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New Mexico and Texas. In all these states, Latino voters in 2020 supported Democratic Senate candidates by wide margins, yet a considerable number — between 2% and 10%, depending on the state — split their ballots between parties when choosing Senate and presidential candidates. These swing voters will likely be a critical segment in this year’s midterm elections, particularly in states like Arizona and Georgia where Senate races are currently considered toss-ups, the report’s authors said. The power of the Latino electorate is growing rapidly, with more than 1 million Latinos coming of voting age each year. Determining the future balance of power in the currently divided Senate and elsewhere will depend heavily on efforts to get out the Latino vote, said the institute’s founding director, Sonja Diaz. “Voting patterns show the critical role Latinos play in pivotal midterm elections, but these votes must be earned,” Diaz said. “Campaigns for House and Senate seats should ensure they are reaching the Latino electorate by addressing the needs of this community and utilizing tailored outreach techniques proven to result in voter mobilization.” — Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas

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Diaz on Mobilizing Latino Vote in L.A. Mayor’s Race

A Los Angeles Times story about a poll showing Karen Bass and Rick Caruso in a dead heat in the L.A. mayor’s race looked to Sonja Diaz, executive director of the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative, for context. If the June 7 primary leads to a contest between U.S. Congresswoman Bass and billionaire developer Caruso, the election would be marked by stark divides of ideology, race and geography. Caruso has already spent millions on television and digital advertising, including on Spanish-language TV and radio stations and on websites such as YouTube. Still, more than half of Latino poll respondents said they didn’t know Bass or Caruso well enough to form an opinion of the candidates. “Latinos are going to be late deciders,” Diaz said. “The fact that they’re undecided, in order to change that, there’s really going to have to be money and tailored messaging.”

Diaz on Caruso’s Entry Into the L.A. Mayor’s Race

Sonja Diaz, executive director of the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative, spoke to the Los Angeles Times and New York Times about billionaire developer Rick Caruso’s entry into the race for L.A. mayor. Caruso has said that elected politicians have failed voters on issues such as homelessness and crime. His résumé, which includes serving as head of the city’s Police Commission and chairman of the board of trustees of the University of Southern California, evokes an older generation of Los Angeles power brokers. Diaz said the success of any mayoral candidate will depend, at least in part, on the ability to appeal to Latino voters. “Obviously, COVID-19 has had a disparate impact on Latino households in this city,” she told the L.A. Times. “So a mayor is going to have to articulate a policy agenda that centers Latino workers and Latino households in ways that they can remain in the city and not just survive but thrive.”


 

Tackling Voter Dilution in California UCLA Voting Rights Project fights to ensure equitable representation in Orange and Yolo counties

By Jose Garcia

As counties across California finalize new electoral boundaries in a once-in-a-decade process known as redistricting, the UCLA Voting Rights Project (VRP) is successfully providing guidance to decision-makers to ensure full compliance with federal and state laws.

California has experienced rapid demographic changes, such as Latinos becoming the largest ethnic majority in the state, and county boards get one shot to draw fair and equitable district maps for the next decade. In the past, California has seen patterns of voter dilution that many wish to see corrected.

The Voting Rights Project, the flagship project of the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative (LPPI), is placing direct pressure on decision-makers through high-level analysis of district maps and leveraging of local media, with the goal of ensuring that equitably drawn maps are implemented.

In Orange County, a region that is 34% Latino, the county Board of Supervisors has not seen Latino representation in over 15 years. This is largely attributed to the way district boundaries have been drawn in the past.

In response, the Voting Rights Project published a report analyzing proposed maps for the county’s supervisorial districts and detailed the steps needed to ensure full compliance with the federal Voting Rights Act.

“Several of the proposed maps, while appearing to be compliant, did not actually meet requirements to give areas with a high percentage of people of color a chance of electing a representative from their community,” said Sonni Waknin, voting rights counsel for the VRP.

Some of the proposed maps ensured that Latinos were less able to elect candidates of their choice by “cracking,” or splitting, adjacent cities with ethnic majorities, such as Santa Ana and Anaheim, according to Sonja Diaz, founding director of the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative.

The Voting Rights Project urged the Orange County Board of Supervisors to implement specific boundary changes that would create the county’s first majority-Latino supervisorial district — which the board subsequently adopted in a historic vote.

“We are incredibly proud to have ensured that Orange County recognized the need for Latinos to elect candidates of their choice, as required by the federal Voting Rights Act,” Waknin said.

Her team harnessed the success in Orange County and began deploying similar strategies across the state throughout the fall of 2021.

Yolo County, a region at high risk of voter dilution under proposed district boundaries, was a priority. While voters had been able to elect a Latino candidate under existing maps, the margin of victory was narrow, considering that Latinos accounted for 69% of the county’s total population growth over the last 10 years.

As it did in Orange County, Waknin’s team analyzed proposed maps and demographics in Yolo County and found that several plans under consideration would crack the Latino population of existing districts and lower the Latino voting-age population below thresholds required by the Voting Rights Act.

A VRP memo sent to the Yolo County Board of Supervisors argued that three of the four originally proposed maps would absolutely dilute the power of Latino voters. Following the memo and a coordinated media strategy, the supervisors unanimously voted to adopt district borders closely resembling the VRP’s recommendations.

“Latino communities have driven the growth of California for the past decade,” Waknin said. “Their political voice must be heard at every level, including local governments.”

At the local level, cities and counties use new census data to redraw district lines to reflect changes in their populations. California’s congressional districts are redrawn every decade by an independent commission of citizens from across the state.

Currently, over half of the U.S. has finished the redistricting process, and many of the approved maps will ultimately undercut communities of color, according to Waknin. Her team is continuing its involvement in places facing potential voter dilution outside of California, including in key states such as Texas and Washington.

“Through this work, the UCLA Voting Rights Project is playing a critical role in protecting the integrity of the state’s and nation’s democracy,” Diaz said. “The project is fundamentally influencing how political boundaries are redrawn to create an equitable electoral system for all.”

Diaz on How Latino Voters Were Mobilized to Help Block Recall

NPR’s All Things Considered spoke with Sonja Diaz, executive director of the Latino Policy and Politics Initiative at UCLA Luskin, about California’s Latino electorate. The state’s Latinos skew younger and more Democratic than Latinos in many other regions, Diaz said, but “by and large, Latino voters care about the same things in California that they do in Texas — good jobs and good health care.” Civil society organizations, rather than the Democratic Party, did the bulk of the work to get out the vote to block the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom, she said. “The fact that these voters came out, it was because of these community-based organizers that really put a message that was distinct from either party,” a message that focused on values steeped in data science and strong policy rather than xenophobia, Diaz said. “That was very persuasive to these voters. And by and large, now they’re likely voters going into the 2022 midterm elections.”