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Ong on How to Prepare for U.S. Demographic Changes

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UCLA Luskin’s Paul Ong spoke to the Associated Press about new Census Bureau projections showing an older, more diverse U.S. population by the end of the 21st century. Whether the nation’s total population increases or declines depends on immigration patterns, the bureau said, but in all scenarios, older adults will outnumber children and white, non-Hispanic residents will account for less than 50% of the population. The projections can help the U.S. prepare for change, including anticipating the number of schools that will need to be built and what resources will be required to meet health care demands of older Americans, said Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin. “As most demographers realize, population projection is not an inevitable destiny, just a glimpse into a possible future,” Ong said, saying the information opens up opportunities for action. “Over 80 years, birth and death rates, fertility rates and migration rates can be changed through policies, programs and resources.”

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Housing Shortage Persists Despite Population Decline

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UCLA Luskin’s Michael Lens spoke to the Los Angeles Times for an article explaining why California housing prices have defied the laws of supply and demand, with mortgages and rents remaining stubbornly high even though the state’s population has declined in recent years. One reason is that, for decades, the pace of housing production did not keep up with demand, creating a backlog made even more enormous by the surge of Millennials now seeking to enter the housing market. “The cost of living in California and Los Angeles is so high … that we know a lot of people can’t move here and we know a lot of people can’t remain here, because they are priced out,” said Lens, a professor of urban planning and public policy.

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Ong on Post-COVID Population Shifts

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Paul Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin, spoke to the Los Angeles Times about population shifts in California counties. Factors affecting the shifts include college students moving back to campus, the easing of COVID-19 protocols and employees moving back to the office. Ong said the “waning of the worst days of the pandemic has slowed the exit from major cities,” as crowded spaces are no longer a major source of fear. While urban centers have “once again become appealing to a new generation of young workers,” it is urgent that cities address problems regarding housing, homelessness, infrastructure and safety, Ong cautioned.  “Without correcting these flaws, major cities will continue to depopulate.”

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Ong on the Exodus Out of California

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Paul Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin, spoke to the Los Angeles Times and NBC4’s NewsConference about California’s steep population decline. Between April 2020 and July 2022, the population dropped by more than 500,000 people. The number of residents leaving surpassed those moving in by nearly 700,000. Ong pointed to several economic, health and sociopolitical factors driving the exodus, with housing affordability at the top of the list. “California now has the highest housing burden — that is, the proportion of income that is going to pay for housing. Roughly between a fifth to a quarter of those who are financing a home or paying rent are spending more than half of their income on housing,” Ong told NewsConference. Los Angeles in particular saw a “fast, clear and sharp spike during the pandemic,” as remote work allowed people to move away from dense urban cores, he told the L.A. Times.

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Ong on Long-Term Consequences of L.A.’s Demographic Shifts

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UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge Director Paul Ong spoke to the Riverside Press-Enterprise about demographic shifts in Southern California as a result of the pandemic and the affordable housing crisis. The population of Los Angeles County has been declining for years as part of a statewide mass migration from coastal to inland counties and into other states. The pandemic exacerbated this trend, allowing many people to leave areas with high housing costs but keep their jobs with work-from-home freedom. While there could be some short-term positives, “in the long run it’s going to hurt our economy” if housing costs stay so high that they put artificial constraints on the population, Ong said. “We’re robbing ourselves from growing in a positive way. It’s not a desirable outcome.” He added, “Patterns we’ve seen are a warning to us, highlighting structural problems that existed in California before the pandemic — deep problems we need to solve.”

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Ong on Factors Behind California’s Declining Population

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UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge Director Paul Ong spoke to the Los Angeles Times about the decline in California’s population, largely driven by lower immigration, fewer births and pandemic deaths. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, California experienced a net loss of 262,000 residents between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021, mostly from Los Angeles County. Ong pointed out that while the COVID-19 pandemic probably played a role in less immigration, the number of international migrants has been steadily declining for several years. “It’s a combination of those things, but certainly it was happening before the pandemic,” Ong said. “In some ways, it’s part of what we see historically in terms of immigrants — that they do settle and cluster in a few areas and cities, but over time they move away.” Ong said that a shrinking population can have a negative effect on the local economy and result in a decrease in the number of skilled workers in a region.

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Ong on Reforms to Uphold Census Integrity

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UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge Director Paul Ong spoke to the Associated Press about ways to address flaws in how the U.S. Census is conducted. The Census Bureau found that Black, Hispanic, American Indian and other minority residents were undercounted at greater rates in 2020 than in the previous decade, prompting discussion about ways to better measure changes in the U.S. population. In 2020, the Trump administration unsuccessfully attempted to use administrative records to determine the number of people in the country illegally in order to influence the allocation of congressional seats. Ong noted that any effort to revamp how the count is conducted will need to be protected from similar efforts to misuse the count for political purposes. “The 2020 enumeration was a wakeup call,” Ong said. “The Census Bureau has a very important and fundamental function in our society. It is the keeper of our demographic truths.”

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Torres-Gil on Long-Term Care for an Aging America

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Professor of Social Welfare and Public Policy Fernando Torres-Gil co-authored a commentary in The Hill about the growing demand for caretakers as the U.S. population ages. According to one study, the United States has an unmet need for 2.3 million home care workers. Congress is currently debating legislation to improve affordable care by expanding Medicaid coverage for home care services for seniors and people with disabilities, among other measures. Torres-Gil and co-author Jacqueline Angel from the University of Texas, Austin, noted that middle-class and working families are most likely to shoulder the burden of caring for family members, and these populations are most likely to suffer from burnout and caregiver stress. Eventually, the authors hope to see the implementation of a universal long-term care policy, such as those in place in the European Union, South Korea and Japan. “We can do better here in the United States,” they wrote.

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Diaz Pushes for Fair Redistricting in Orange County

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UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative Director Sonja Diaz spoke to the Los Angeles Times about the potential impacts of redistricting in Orange County. Nearly a third of Orange County residents are Latino, but current district boundaries divide areas with large Latino populations in Santa Ana and Anaheim. Diaz explained that dividing adjacent cities with ethnic majorities, a process known as cracking, has been a major factor in Latino voter turnout and can dilute political power. The county Board of Supervisors is currently undergoing the decennial redistricting process with data from the 2020 Census and is expected to approve a majority Latino district for the first time. “Orange County has for far too long been dictated by the policy preferences of an aging, white electorate that leans conservative,” Diaz said. “And I say this as a jurisdiction that is increasingly multiethnic and multiracial, with large communities of Asian American and Latino electorates.”

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Redistricting Is Not a Simple Math Problem, Diaz Says

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Founding Director of the Latino Policy and Politics Initiative Sonja Diaz was featured in an NBC News article discussing the importance of accurate representation through redistricting. The Census Bureau’s release of data from the 2020 Census illustrated the growth of the Latino electorate over the past 10 years and “we want to ensure, through data and advocacy, that Latino political power does not decrease in the 2021 redistricting cycle,” Diaz said. The census data is a valuable tool for Latinos advocating for redistricting that reflects changing demographics. “It’s not a simple math problem. There’s politics involved and every state has a different process for how lines are drawn, whether it is the legislature or independent redistricting commissions,” she explained. “Ultimately, this country has had a storied history of vote dilution against communities of color, including Latinos and especially African Americans.”

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