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A ‘Hesitantly Bullish’ Take on U.S. Unemployment Trends

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A WalletHub article on U.S. states where unemployment is ticking up cited Robert Fairlie, chair of Public Policy at UCLA Luskin and a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research. “I’m hesitantly bullish on the job market for 2024,” said Fairlie, explaining that national jobless rates are still relatively low and are not likely to increase rapidly in the coming year. But he added, “The major problem many people have is that their wages are not increasing as fast as inflation. That is making it hard for people to afford to live, especially in high-cost housing markets.” Moving savings out of non-interest-earning accounts and into money market funds that pay a higher interest rate is one way that people can protect their finances, Fairlie said. 

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Tilly on Working Conditions in the Retail Sector

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Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to Boston Globe Magazine about working conditions in the retail sector, particularly at supercenters that attract consumers with discount prices made possible in part by keeping employee wages low. “In the 1960s into the early 1970s, working in retail really was a decent job,” said Tilly, co-author of “Where Bad Jobs Are Better: Retail Jobs Across Countries and Companies.” That changed due to a number of factors, including the increasing desirability of part-time positions. “Retailers figured out they could offer half the wages and none, or some, of the benefits,” Tilly said. Now, “the dominant model has been a low wage, high turnover, low benefits and increasingly crazy schedules.” Market forces, including pandemic-era labor shortages, have pushed retailers to improve working conditions, but those gains could be reversed if employers regain the advantage.

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Tilly Offers Tips for Employee Retention

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In a New Hope article, Urban Planning Chair Chris Tilly offered three tips on how to keep businesses fully staffed in a challenging labor market. Health and safety concerns during the pandemic and complaints about poor working conditions have left many industries struggling to fill positions. Many workers have refused to settle for unsafe and stressful jobs that don’t pay enough. According to Tilly, “attracting good employees comes down to pay and respect,” so businesses must offer enough money to employees, as well as respectful treatment and appropriate safety conditions. He also recommended “selling the job during the interviews” and considering changes to make the job more attractive. To maximize employee retention, he recommended investing time and effort into hands-on training for new employees. “There is nothing more frustrating to a new employee than being thrown into a retail situation without enough background,” he said. 

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Blumenberg on Supporting Transit Rider Mobility

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Urban Planning Professor Evelyn Blumenberg spoke to the Fresno Bee about the impact that car access has on socioeconomic mobility. “There’s a very robust connection between having a car and having a job,” Blumenberg said. In Fresno, the commute times for bus riders are nearly double the commute times for car owners, and this makes it difficult to plan a sequence of trips to be on time for class or work. Blumenberg said the challenge is compounded for women, and especially mothers, who often carry the burden of taking their children to child care, school or the doctor. Fresno is working to increase the frequency of transit services to decrease commute times, but these improvements in service can have a limited impact in sprawling regions like Fresno. Blumenberg suggested building a denser network of housing and jobs, close to existing transit lines. This can help shorten travel distances, making transit more efficient and comparable to driving.

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Report Highlights ‘Atmosphere of Fear’ for Asian American Employees

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A KQED article featured new research from the UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge on the rising incidence of anti-Asian hate crimes. The center collaborated with the California-based coalition Stop AAPI Hate to produce a report based on the findings of a national survey of Asian American and Pacific Islander employees. Those surveyed reported alarmingly high rates of hate incidents at their jobs, in addition to an overwhelming fear of being targeted at work. More than a quarter of the respondents said they experienced a hate incident at work in 2021, and more than 20% said they are reluctant to return to in-person work because they’re afraid they will be racially targeted. “It creates an atmosphere of fear when you go to work and you’re uncertain about what’s going to happen that day because you happen to be Asian American,” said Paul Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge and a co-author of the report.

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Tilly on Newfound American Labor Power

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Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly joined NewsNation Now to discuss the labor strikes going on across the country. “We’ve seen growing inequality in this country since the 1970s, so it makes sense for workers to point that out at a time when they have some leverage to do so,” Tilly said. The gap between the CEO and the worker has consistently grown in recent decades. Tilly explained that the power of unions depends on labor shortages and the supply chain, and workers now have more power than they have had in years. “That power is real, but we don’t know how long it will last,” he said. “If workers get [paid] more, that will contribute to inflation, but if what that means is that workers are getting a bigger piece of the pie, I would agree that that’s a good thing,” Tilly concluded.

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Tilly Explains Labor Shortage Patterns

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Urban Planning Chair Chris Tilly was featured in a Vox article discussing labor shortages as many low-wage workers demand better working conditions. Nearly 16 million Americans quit their jobs between April and July, highlighting the mental and physical fatigue experienced by many, as well as the desire to improve work environments. “For a lot of people, it’s been traumatizing,” Tilly said. Essential workers in California experienced a 30% increase in deaths in the first 10 months of the pandemic, according to an analysis of public data. Many low-wage jobs lack benefits such as health insurance and sick leave, and the work itself can be physically and emotionally taxing. “People settled for that, but they weren’t necessarily thrilled with those jobs,” Tilly explained. He also pointed out that any increases in hourly wages are often countered by inflation. “The labor shortage giveth, and the end of the labor shortage taketh away,” Tilly said.

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Jacoby Sheds Light on Amazon Business Model

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Professor of Public Policy Sanford Jacoby was featured in a Capital & Main article about how Amazon’s business model has hindered unionization efforts by the company’s workers. “The thing you have to remember about Amazon is that it’s really two companies these days,” said Jacoby, author of the recently published “Labor in the Age of Finance: Pensions, Politics, and Corporations from Deindustrialization to Dodd-Frank.” “There’s the Amazon we know as consumers and then there’s Amazon Web Services, which is a much more profitable part of the company.” He explained that AWS, which sells data storage and processing to companies and generated $13.5 billion in 2020, is more profitable than the division where consumers buy items online and have them delivered. Jacoby noted that Amazon uses revenue from AWS to subsidize low prices for consumers and fast delivery, which increases the pressure on warehouse workers to meet the high demand. 

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Spotlight on Research Into Heat-Triggered Injuries

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Research into the effects of hot weather on workplace injuries, led by Assistant Professor of Public Policy R. Jisung Park, drew widespread media attention. Park’s study found that extreme heat causes many times more workplace injuries than official records capture and that those injuries are concentrated among the poorest workers — the latest evidence of how climate change worsens inequality. Hotter days lead to an additional 20,000 workplace injuries each year in California alone, not just among people who work outdoors but also for indoor workers, endangering those employed in manufacturing, warehousing and wholesale, the study found. High temperatures were linked to injuries from falling, being struck by vehicles or mishandling machinery, in addition to heat stroke, suggesting that heat makes it harder to concentrate. “Hotter temperatures … appear to have hidden costs,” Park told the Los Angeles Times. Several other news outlets also showcased the research, including the New York Times, the Guardian, Marketplace and Vox.

 

Tilly on the Intrusiveness of AI Technology

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Urban Planning Chair Chris Tilly was featured in a Fox32 news segment about the growing use of artificial intelligence technology in the food industry. Many stores such as McDonald’s and Amazon Go are testing drive-thru and AI invisible checkout systems. Tilly explained that these new technologies have an impact on both consumers and the workforce. “To some extent, workers are being replaced by this technology,” he said. “At the same time, the expansion of services like curbside pickup means that workers are being added.” While the workforce may be balanced out by the expansion of these new technologies, Tilly noted that the services can be very intrusive for consumers. “Artificial intelligence is always on, always tracking what people are doing,” he said. While the Amazon Go model has currently only been implemented in small stores with many sensors and cameras, Tilly predicted that technology will most likely allow companies to expand these services in the long run.

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