New analysis from the UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge finds an 83% drop in monthly naturalizations, raising concerns about barriers to citizenship and voter participation.
Becoming a citizen in the United States has become increasingly more difficult, according to a new data brief from the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge (CNK) at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. The analysis, which looks at changes in national and state rates of naturalization, found there were 76% fewer legal immigrants gaining citizenship across the country under the current administration compared to the previous administration.
“This data shows that the heightened restrictions on immigrants in this country go beyond border control and deportations,” said Paul Ong, research professor and director of the center, who co-authored the brief. “The very pathways to legal citizenship are being altered and taken away.”
Annual naturalization rates grew dramatically from the early 1990s to 2024, due to the elimination of ethnically biased restrictions in previous decades. According to the brief, which uses monthly and quarterly data from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and other sources, the monthly average was over 70,000 by 2024.
Starting at the end of summer 2025, the researchers found the number of people naturalizing declined, likely due to updated requirements, such as a new civic test and a moral character evaluation, and slower processing of applications, as the average processing time doubled from early 2024 to end of summer 2026.
Overall, these systemic barriers played a role in bringing the number of monthly approvals down 83%, from a peak of 88,000 in April 2025 to fewer than 16,000 in August 2026. If the low rates continue, it could reach normalized levels similar to the post-World War II period.
“As these rates regress to historically low levels, we could see the creation of a marginalized population, as legal immigrants are caught in a state of limbo,” said Ong.
The decline in naturalization is a national phenomenon, one that was particularly seen in states like California, with the San Jose area experiencing the largest decline in the country, and places like Fresno, Los Angeles and San Francisco also showing higher than the national average declines. Florida, New York and Texas had the next highest declines in naturalizations when it came to state comparisons. In terms of percentage declines, only one state, Iowa, had an increase between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026. All other states saw percent losses between 51% and 95%.
The researchers point out that one consequence of these drops is the disenfranchisement of over half a million immigrants who otherwise would have become eligible to register and vote in this year’s midterm elections in November.
Co-author Jonathan Ong, an independent researcher, said, “We are witnessing expansive policies and practices that systematically target specific populations, and unfortunately, as it stands, these tactics could have a chilling effect on immigrant populations, even for those with citizenship status.”
Read the full report from the UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge.
