As Israel prepares for its October 27 Knesset election, a new report from the UCLA Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) examines mounting pressures on the country’s democratic institutions, governance and international standing.
The report finds signs of democratic erosion despite Israel’s continued classification among the world’s “Consolidated Democratic States.” BGI data show that democratic accountability declined from 85 to 82 between the periods examined, while state capacity fell from 72 to 69, driven largely by an eight-point drop in fiscal capacity. Public goods provision remained relatively strong at 93, although environmental performance weakened.
Researchers identify three forces shaping Israel’s trajectory: a rightward political shift, prolonged military engagement and increasing diplomatic isolation. The report also examines the democratic implications of Israeli authority over millions of Palestinians who lack voting rights in Israeli national elections.
Looking beyond the election, the analysis outlines three potential scenarios: continued prioritization of military security, a diplomatic reset under an Eisenkot-led coalition or prolonged political paralysis.
The report concludes that sustaining military dominance, diplomatic isolation and economic prosperity simultaneously may prove increasingly difficult for Israel.
