Northern California continues to have the nation’s lowest ICE arrest rate, despite a national increase in deportation activity under the Trump administration, according to a San Francisco Chronicle article. Between January and mid-October 2025, ICE arrested nearly 4,500 people in the San Francisco “area of responsibility,” yielding about 217 arrests per 100,000 noncitizens—far below the national rate of nearly 1,000 per 100,000.

Experts attribute the low rates in Northern California to the state’s sanctuary law, which limits local cooperation with federal immigration enforcement, as well as community resistance and supportive local policies. Arrest rates rose slightly, but nearly half of those arrested in the Bay Area had no criminal conviction, reflecting a shift toward “community arrests” as federal authorities attempt to meet deportation targets.

One notable exception is the San Diego area of responsibility, which is composed of San Diego and Imperial counties. The area went from having one of the country’s lowest rates in 2024 to having one of the highest in 2025.

Paul Ong, research professor and Director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, said that’s likely due to those counties’ proximity to the border, as well as their high foreign-born Hispanic populations.Research Professor and Director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge