Tilly on Global Impact of U.S. Economic Data Interruption

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Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke with Chile’s El Mercurio about the U.S. government shutdown, the longest in the nation’s history.

Tilly weighed in on the interruption of reliable economic data produced by the government. U.S. agencies that produce key indicators such as the Consumer Price Index, monthly employment report, and retail sales figures have suspended or reduced many of their operations due to a lack of funding.

Global markets and central banks are also affected, Tilly told the Spanish-language news outlet.

“The lack of data directly affects international markets,” he said. “Investors depend on data to make their decisions, and this situation generates uncertainty in investment decisions.”

Tilly on the Government Shutdown and Specter of Recession

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UCLA Luskin’s Chris Tilly spoke to Al Jazeera News about the consequences of the U.S. government’s extended shutdown.

About 1.4 million federal employees are furloughed or working without pay, and many government services have been suspended nationwide. Tilly spoke about the multiplier effects that could shake consumer and business confidence in the economy. And he noted that the shutdown is one crisis point in a bigger fight about the role of government, including recent moves to keep taxes low on billionaires and cut back on the social safety net.

“We economists feel like there’s a lot of reasons to be concerned because the economy is already fragile,” said Tilly, a labor economist and professor of urban planning and sociology. “The Federal Reserve and economic forecasters are saying we’re scarily close to falling into a recession. So it may not take much to push us over the edge.”

Tilly on Impact of Immigration Raids on Local Business

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UCLA Luskin Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to CBS Evening News in a broadcast about the economic impacts of ICE raids on businesses, workers and customers in Los Angeles. The news segment noted the visibly sharp decline in foot traffic and business activity in the normally active downtown Los Angeles area. While the city’s streets have remained relatively calm with overnight curfews in place, vendors and customers are staying home out of fear of detention and deportation, according to local business owners. “We’re talking many billions of dollars that are being lost if we continue this deportation nationwide,” said Tilly. He explained, “If you’re talking about five percent of the workforce, that is a large and important spending block and some of that gets spent in immigrant enclaves,” adding, “But, it definitely ripples out to the broad economy.”

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Tilly on Impact of Tariffs on Products and Rebuilding in L.A.

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UCLA Luskin Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to the Los Angeles Public Press for a story about the effects of the Trump tariffs in Los Angeles. Angelenos report higher prices on products including fruits and vegetables and experts say that they should expect to pay more imported goods. Those trying to rebuild after the region’s wildfires also may find it difficult due to higher prices on building materials. “Building a house takes a long time, so you have to know how much does this lumber cost now, and how much is it going to cost in six months or a year,” Tilly said. “And because Trump has shown he’s very arbitrary and unpredictable, but he’s very serious about imposing tariffs, that means that homebuilders have to think twice about taking on that added expense.” Tilly added that due to severe budget shortfalls, he does not expect additional monetary help from the state, county or city government.

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Tilly on the Effects of Tariffs in California

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UCLA Luskin Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to Newsweek for an article about the effect that the Trump tariffs are having on California’s economy. California, known as the engine of the nation’s economy — with busy major ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — is already seeing the consequences of the latest tariffs on imports, according to experts who also see inflation and recession fears growing amid destabilized markets. California, the fifth-largest economy in the world and the largest state economy in the U.S., is the largest importer and second-largest exporter in the nation. The tariffs also have impacted employment throughout the state, including California warehouses which have experienced large job losses, Tilly said. “California warehousing employment has not trended upward since 2022, and has fluctuated since that time, in my view because it was flirting with overcapacity,” Tilly said, adding, “Though the job losses look large, they are well within the range of recent fluctuations.”

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Tilly on California Governor’s Remote Work Rollback

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UCLA Luskin Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to the Associated Press about the push by California and other states to bring employees back into the office, rolling back remote work for hundreds of thousands of public-sector workers who kept public organizations operating during COVID-19. The story follows California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recent surprise announcement ordering state workers to be in the office at least four days a week starting July 1, 2025. The executive return-to-office order is similar to those in other states including Texas, as well as on the national level and among the largest corporations in the U.S. Experts don’t expect widespread quitting by employees but predict top performers may leave while recruitment and retention take a hit. “States are going to have to increase salaries or fatten up the benefits package in other ways if they’re asking people to forgo this flexibility,” said Tilly, who studies labor markets.

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Tilly on Raising California’s Minimum Wage

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UCLA Luskin Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to CalMatters for a story about California’s Proposition 32, a measure on the November ballot that would raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 in the coming year. The proposed increase follows minimum hikes enacted in 2016 to boost the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2022. Experts, advocates and workers have questioned whether the most recent hike will be enough to make a significant difference in Californians’ lives. A number of California cities already have enacted higher minimum wages, motivated by the higher cost of living, while unions have successfully pushed for higher wages for specific industries including fast food and health care, and are pushing for more. “In some ways, at the point where this measure is heading to the ballot, it’s kind of underwhelming,” said Tilly, who studies labor markets.

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Tilly on U.S. Wages and Job Creation

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UCLA Luskin Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to CNBC in a story about the trend in real earnings — the net growth in worker’s wages after inflation — in the U.S. over the past year. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average worker in the private sector saw an increase in real hourly earnings from May 2023 to May 2024. “The last year of increases in real wages is a large and important step forward for working families,” said Tilly, who studies labor markets and public policies directed toward better jobs. Tilly also commented in a Spectrum News 1 story about U.S. job growth during the current presidential administration. “The economy started out in a hole due to the pandemic when President Biden assumed the presidency, and so part of the process was getting out of that hole,” he said. “That’s a lot of jobs to create.”

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Reframing Perspectives on Who’s Helped, Hurt by Minimum Wage Hikes

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Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly spoke to news outlets about the impact of California’s new wage law on fast-food chains as well as smaller businesses. The law sets a $20 minimum hourly wage for fast-food workers at chains with 60 or more restaurants nationwide. But the impact is also felt by local ethnic restaurants and other small businesses, which must compete to retain workers. “These grassroots businesses are part of the glue that holds communities together, and they’re what give the community an identity,” Tilly told the Los Angeles Times. He also spoke to USA Today about the wage hike’s effect on consumer prices and hiring practices. “The big critique of minimum wages is ultimately it’s a job killer, that it hurts the people that you’re trying to help,” but data from the last three decades has not shown those effects, Tilly said. “We do have to think about how to help people. But to do that by hurting other low-income people doesn’t seem like the right strategy to me.”

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A President’s Economic Record Is ‘Heavily Dominated by Luck’

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Two United Press International stories about the economic records of Joe Biden and Donald Trump called on UCLA Luskin Urban Planning Professor Chris Tilly for insights. Tilly assessed the economic principles surrounding measures such as tax cuts and infrastructure investments, but also pointed out that the role a president plays in the fiscal health of the country is often overstated. “We tend to give presidents too much credit or blame,” he said. “Most of what is going on in the economy is not something the president can control.” The United States is one cog in a global economy that can be roiled by war, political turmoil, weather emergencies and catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. ”The economic record of a four-year period is heavily dominated by luck, good or bad,” Tilly said.

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