New insights from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) reveal a stark reality for Cameroon, Malawi, Ivory Coast, the Central African Republic, and Tanzania: despite real progress in Public Goods Provision, these gains are being propped up by rapidly rising debt and eroding governance foundations. Democratic Accountability is weakening, State Capacity is too low to sustain growth, and elections across all five countries were marked by accusations of fraud, repression, or political violence. In short, public services are improving, but the institutional scaffolding needed to support them is cracking. This dangerous dynamic is fueling a “vicious cycle” where debt drives instability, instability undermines governance, and governance failures further shrink economic opportunity. Breaking out of this trap will require bold investments in state capacity, stronger democratic checks, and coordinated international support that prioritizes long-term resilience over short-term spending.

The Berggruen Governence Index Project (BGI) analyzes the relationship between democratic accountability, state capacity and the provision of public goods. It builds upon prior work that examined the impact of governance and democracy on the quality of life. It is a collaborative project between the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, the Hertie School, and the Berggruen Institute.