Rising gas prices driven by the ongoing Iran war are contributing to a noticeable increase in public transit ridership across California, particularly in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Historically, spikes in fuel costs have encouraged more people to use buses and trains, and early signs suggest a similar pattern may be emerging. However, a recent Los Angeles Times article, notes that transit agencies—still recovering from the sharp decline in ridership during the COVID-19 pandemic—are watching closely to determine whether this surge represents a lasting shift in commuter behavior.

Mike Manville, professor of of urban planning at the UCLA, emphasizes the limits of price-driven behavior changes, explaining that higher gas costs alone are unlikely to fundamentally shift commuting patterns. As he puts it, “People don’t necessarily abandon their cars just because gas gets expensive.”