On the eve of Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election, a new report from the UCLA Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) examines whether Viktor Orbán’s 16-year “illiberal democracy” experiment is a model for Europe’s future or a cautionary tale.

Using BGI data, researchers found that Hungary‘s democratic accountability has fallen sharply since 2010, state capacity has mildly deteriorated, and public goods provision has improved only modestly thanks to EU transfers.

Crucially, Orbán’s Fidesz party now trails the center-right Tisza Party by nearly 10 points —raising the prospect of a democratic reset echoing Poland’s 2023 election. The report outlines three post-election scenarios: continued illiberalism, cosmetic reform, or genuine democratic renewal.

The Berggruen Governance Index is a collaborative project between the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, the Hertie School, and the Berggruen Institute,

Read the full report.