Model Identifies High-Priority Areas for Vaccine Distribution

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To help slow the spread of COVID-19 and save lives, UCLA public health and urban planning experts have developed a predictive model that pinpoints which populations in which neighborhoods of Los Angeles County are most at risk of becoming infected. The researchers hope the model, which can be applied to other counties and jurisdictions as well, will assist decision makers, public health officials and scientists in effectively and equitably implementing vaccine distribution, testing, closures and reopenings, and other virus-mitigation measures. The model, developed by the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin and the UCLA BRITE Center for Science, Research and Policy, maps Los Angeles County neighborhood by neighborhood, based on four important indicators known to significantly increase a person’s medical vulnerability to COVID-19 infection — preexisting medical conditions, barriers to accessing health care, built-environment characteristics and socioeconomic challenges. The research data demonstrate that neighborhoods characterized by significant clustering of racial and ethnic minorities, low-income households and unmet medical needs are most vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. Knowing precisely which populations are the most vulnerable and where new infections are likely to occur is critical information in determining how to allocate scarce resources. The data can also provide insights to social service providers, emergency agencies and volunteers on where to direct their time and resources, such as where to set up distribution sites for food and other necessities. And importantly, identifying the areas and populations with the highest vulnerability will help decision-makers equitably prioritize vaccine-distribution plans to protect the most vulnerable. — Elizabeth Kivowitz Boatright-Simon

Ong Examines Asian American Voter Trends

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Paul Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin, was featured in an NBC article discussing voting trends among Asian Americans. Early exit polls indicated that Asian American voters heavily favored Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden over President Donald Trump. While Biden performed well, the data suggests that Trump’s level of support among  Asian Americans did not decline. During the pandemic, anti-Asian sentiment across the country contributed to hate incidents as well as an increase in Asian American unemployment and business closings, Ong said. He expected Trump’s use of xenophobic and discriminatory language, such as “kung flu” and “China virus,” to decrease support for the president among Asian Americans. Instead, he noted that “changes have only happened marginally, and not a massive shift.” Ong concluded that “the racialized political divide has hardened, and we face a difficult next four years.”

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Report Finds Spike in Food Insecurity, Patterns of Inequality

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A new report from UCLA Luskin’s Center for Neighborhood Knowledge (CNK) documents a surge in food insecurity across the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. By mid-July, more than 64 million people reported difficulty getting enough to eat — a level of food insecurity that is higher than that experienced during the Great Recession, the study found. Federal government programs did provide food, employment and housing assistance to help Americans weather the pandemic, but “that did not prevent rising crisis levels of hunger and food insecurity,” said CNK Director Paul Ong, co-author of the report. Households experiencing food insecurity increased from 10.5% in October 2019 to 18% in late April and to 26% by early July, according to the study, which analyzed data from the U.S. Census Household Pulse Survey. Researchers also identified patterns of inequality along ethnic and racial lines: Between April 23 and July 21, 2020, food insecurity was reported by 36% of Black and 31% of Latino households, compared to 16% of non-Hispanic white households. Shelter-in-place mandates contributed to the high level of food insecurity, with some respondents saying that health issues, transportation problems or fear kept them from going to the grocery store. For most, however, the problem was financial, with nearly 80% of those suffering food insecurity reporting that they could not afford to buy more food. “Using a strictly rational approach, increasing access to healthy food would reduce health care costs and the loss of lives, which would benefit all society,” said co-author Tom Larson, professor emeritus at Cal State Los Angeles. “Morally, providing aid is just the right thing to do.”  

 

Study Examines Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Small Businesses in L.A.’s Ethnic Neighborhoods

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The UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge (CNK), in collaboration with Ong & Associates, recently released a new report on COVID-19 pandemic impacts on minority-owned businesses in Los Angeles. Previous CNK studies have documented the disproportionate adverse impacts of the pandemic on marginalized neighborhoods in labor and housing markets. The new report focuses on small businesses and examines whether the COVID-19 crisis disproportionately impacted local businesses in ethnic neighborhoods in Los Angeles. Answers to this question provide academic insights on racial systemic inequality and inform policy interventions, according to Paul Ong, co-author of the report and CNK director.  “If the disparities are significant, there are profound policy implications. Race-conscious government efforts to address systemic racism are needed to ensure an equitable economic recovery,” the researchers said. The team used location data to analyze foot traffic patterns to restaurants and retail locations in ethnic and comparison neighborhoods from February through September 2020. The results indicate an earlier and steeper decline in commercial activity in Chinatown and, while retail was resilient in ethnic neighborhoods, restaurants suffered greater declines on average than in comparison neighborhoods. Ong and colleagues found that overall, the ethnic neighborhoods collectively performed worse than the county as a whole prior to lockdown and performed no better than the county under shelter-in-place orders. The project was partially supported with grants from the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs (funded by Southern California Grantmakers) and from the UCLA Asian American Studies Center (funded by the Stanley Kow Lau and Dora Wong Lau Endowment).

 

Digital Divide Among U.S. Schoolchildren Is Deepening, Report Finds

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A new report by the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin measures the digital divide in American schools, which threatens to undermine the educational achievement of low-income and minority students for years to come. Disparities in access to computers and adequate internet service predate COVID-19 but have deepened since the pandemic’s outbreak, the study found. The analysis used data from the U.S. Census Household Pulse Survey covering the latter part of the 2019-2020 school year, when schools were forced to halt in-person learning. All groups experienced some challenges in providing adequate computer access and internet service for children’s educational purposes, but the difficulties were greatest in Hispanic, Black, low-income and younger households, according to the study. It also found a link between the lack of access to technology and the parents’ level of educational attainment. Researchers are currently assessing data from the start of the 2020-2021 school year to identify lingering disparities. The study, conducted in collaboration with the public interest research group Ong & Associates, aims to guide educators and policymakers in formulating effective programs to ensure a fair and equitable school system. “It is essential for elected officials and business leaders to act now to address the potential long-term social and economic effects of this health crisis,” the report’s authors said. “This is true especially given the added challenge the pandemic places on minority, low-income, less educated and young families trying to educate their children to succeed in the new information age.”

 

Ong on Fallout From a Flawed Census

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Paul Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin, spoke to KCRW’s Press Play about flaws in the 2020 Census, which has been cut short by two weeks. Ong said that, 10 years ago, about 5% of households responding to the census provided inaccurate information. “I suspect it’s going to be much worse this time around given the pandemic and given the politicization of the whole process,” he said. Ong also responded to the Trump administration’s efforts to subtract undocumented immigrants from census totals. The policy would deepen the political alienation of a broad group of people, including people of color, low-income populations and immigrants who are in the country legally but who are not yet citizens, Ong said. It would also drain political and economic resources from disadvantaged neighborhoods, with “long-term implications for who gets what and who’s left out.”

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Ong on Pandemic’s Blow to Mom-and-Pop Businesses

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Paul Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin, spoke to the Los Angeles Times for a column about the COVID-19 pandemic’s toll on independent booksellers and other mom-and-pop operations that are part of the city’s historical identity. Ong’s research looks at specific neighborhoods, and preliminary trends show that small businesses in ethnic enclaves have been particularly hard-hit. “We’re talking to some community folks close to the ground who are saying that many of these businesses will not be back,” Ong said. In some ethnic neighborhoods, merchants didn’t appear to have access to financial resources, or language barriers kept them from making full use of government assistance, he said. Ong noted, however, that largely Latino Boyle Heights has fared pretty well, possibly because major hospitals in the neighborhood help anchor the micro-economy. COVID-19’s impact on ethnic communities is felt nationwide. An NBC News article on Asian Americans struggling in New York City also highlighted Ong’s research.  

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Ong on Prospects for Rectifying Census Count

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Paul Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin, gave KCRW’s Greater L.A. program an update on the 2020 Census. In a year upended by the COVID-19 pandemic and partisan recriminations, many fear a serious undercount that will deny vulnerable populations fair political representation and access to both public and private funding. Ong called for the mobilization of independent third parties to conduct followup research that identifies the neighborhoods and populations that have been left out so that the official count can be adjusted. “After the census, after the enumeration, we need to do serious analysis and serious research to understand the patterns of undercount,” he said. “Clearly, the Census Bureau should be doing that, but I don’t think they would do an adequate job.” Ong also spoke to the Orange County Register about the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to allow the count to be halted immediately, noting, “Is our goal to count everyone, to be inclusive? … It’s important to establish that fact.”

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Ong Discusses Rising Asian American Unemployment

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Research Professor Paul Ong was featured in on NPR’s Morning Edition discussing the disproportionate rise in unemployment among Asian Americans. The jobless rate of Asian Americans was lower than that of whites, Blacks or Latinos last year at 2.8%, but it rose above the rate of whites and Latinos to 15% in May. Ong explained that “people are avoiding [areas like Chinatown] because of this myth that somehow Asian Americans are tied in with the spread of coronavirus,” leading to an earlier and deeper drop in foot and vehicle traffic in Chinatown compared to the city’s other commercial neighborhoods. While immigrant communities can provide support and opportunities in ordinary times, Ong said that over-reliance on those networks can be a trap during a crisis like the pandemic. “Certainly that is untrue and unfair, but there’s no question that it gets reflected in the impact on the ethnic economy,” he said.

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Ong on Prospects for Asian American Political Awakening

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NBC News spoke to Research Professor Paul Ong for a story on prospects for an Asian American political awakening fueled by the Nov. 3 election. Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang has called on Asian Americans to vote, donate, volunteer and run for office in order to “realize our place in this country and our potential,” the story noted. No single candidate can mobilize an entire voting bloc, Ong said. But he added that Asian Americans are confronting surging unemployment and discrimination and “they cannot ignore that President Trump is a driver of the anti-Asian narrative.” Ong, director of the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at UCLA Luskin, was also quoted in another NBC News story on polls showing that the fast-growing Asian American electorate favors Democratic candidate Joe Biden, although the support among younger voters is not enthusiastic.

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