UCLA Luskin’s Chris Tilly spoke to Al Jazeera News about the consequences of the U.S. government’s extended shutdown.

About 1.4 million federal employees are furloughed or working without pay, and many government services have been suspended nationwide. Tilly spoke about the multiplier effects that could shake consumer and business confidence in the economy. And he noted that the shutdown is one crisis point in a bigger fight about the role of government, including recent moves to keep taxes low on billionaires and cut back on the social safety net.

“We economists feel like there’s a lot of reasons to be concerned because the economy is already fragile,” said Tilly, a labor economist and professor of urban planning and sociology. “The Federal Reserve and economic forecasters are saying we’re scarily close to falling into a recession. So it may not take much to push us over the edge.”