Gilens on Economic Pain and Voter Motivation

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A New Republic article on political leaders’ lopsided focus on disaffected young male voters cited Martin Gilens, UCLA Luskin professor of public policy, social welfare and political science.

The article argued that Democrats’ obsession with reaching young men is increasingly irrelevant in an economy where a diverse array of demographic groups are struggling to secure a job and pay the rent.

“The economy played a huge role with young men as it did with young women and with voters in general,” Gilens said. “But in particular, young people are going to be less tied to a political party. They have less history of politics and electoral outcomes to draw on.”

In general, presidents may have modest impacts on the economy because of factors outside their control, he said. But the Trump administration may be an exception, given the heavy hand it has placed on economic policy.

“I think it actually makes sense to attribute a lot of the sort of economic conditions, good or bad, to what the president has done, and so yes, absolutely, if the economy is perceived as being bad, then Trump and Republicans are going to be blamed,” Gilens said.

On Migrant Crackdowns and Empty Humanitarian Rhetoric

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UCLA Luskin’s Ananya Roy spoke to KPFA’s Against the Grain program about the recently published book “Beyond Sanctuary: The Humanism of a World in Motion.”

Co-edited by Roy and Veronika Zablotsky, the book’s essays examine how poor and vulnerable migrants are viewed and treated, and the empty humanitarian rhetoric of liberal democracies of the West.

Being forced out of a country that one considers to be home is a form of racial segregation and oppression, Roy said on KPFA.

“We wanted to take seriously the fact that hundreds of thousands of migrants are crossing deadly borders, risking death, risking separation from loved ones, risking never to be able to return home. And to understand what happens to migrants after they cross these borders, which is often the illegalization of their presence, of their migration, the denial of asylum status,” said Roy, a professor of urban planning, social welfare and geography and founding faculty director of the UCLA Luskin Institute on Inequality and Democracy.

Sending a Pointed Message Through Real Estate

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“Spite houses” — structures built or modified specifically to annoy someone — are flourishing in the United States, where private-property culture, individualism and the country’s fragmented zoning laws create ideal conditions for satisfying personal grudges through real estate.

A CNN article about the phenomenon cited Boston’s four-story Skinny House, built by a returning Civil War soldier to block his brother’s view, and more recently, the Equality House, one of two properties bought across the street from Topeka, Kansas’ Westboro Baptist Church, known for its anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric and for picketing at soldiers’ funerals. The owner painted the homes in rainbow colors of the Pride Movement.

“Hostile architecture is very American,” said Paavo Monkkonen, UCLA Luskin professor of urban planning and public policy. “Your house represents more here than it does in other countries. It’s a more personal symbol because it’s a homeownership society. There’s more neighbor-to-neighbor conflict.”

Spite houses are a local, highly personal kind of hostile architecture, which more broadly includes things like uncomfortable park benches meant to keep homeless people from sleeping on them.

“The U.S. approach to urban design is often not people-centric, in the sense that in certain parts of the city you want to build things that no one will go to, plazas that will be empty, because you want to protect your own peace and quiet,” Monkkonen said.

Mullin on the Political Fight Over AI Data Centers

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The construction of AI data centers, enormous complexes that can draw enough electricity to power a medium-sized city and consume millions of gallons of water, have become a potent political flashpoint in the coming election season.

Needed to meet the massive computing demands of the generative AI boom, these data centers are welcomed by those who tout their potential to spur economic growth. But a populist backlash has pointed to sweetheart deals for Big Tech that are raising energy costs for ordinary citizens while delivering relatively few long-term jobs.

A Fortune article on nationwide campaign battles over AI and the future of energy called on Megan Mullin, faculty director of the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, for perspective.

“Candidates are lining up the coalition that they want to bring them into office,” said Mullin, a professor of public policy at UCLA Luskin. Staying on the good side of deep-pocketed tech companies with big AI ambitions could lead to campaign funding and endorsements down the line.

Loukaitou-Sideris on How to Keep Public Transit Safe and Welcoming

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Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris, interim dean of the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, appeared on the podcast Transportopia to discuss critical issues of safety and security in public transportation.

Loukaitou-Sideris drew on her extensive body of research on the transit experience, including how to protect riders and operators while creating spaces that are open and welcoming.

Transit hubs are not innately dangerous, she said. “It is simply the fact that transit attracts hundreds of thousands of people every day in small spaces, and that increases the opportunities for crime.”

To increase safety and visibility, transit agencies can employ a number of tools, said Loukaitou-Sideris, a distinguished professor of urban planning. These include thoughtful design and new technologies, such as upgrading lighting, installing security cameras, and providing apps that give arrival and departure information in real time.

In some locations, safety audits of transit lines have become a community-wide effort, with participants from schools and other local groups. Some transit agencies also enter partnerships with social service providers to offer appropriate resources for those in need of mental health help.

Loukaitou-Sideris offered practical advice for transit agencies seeking to increase safety and decrease fear: “Don’t only rely on one strategy,” she said. “Do research, find data and match it with your resources.”

Repercussions From the U.S.’ Plummeting Birth Rate

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UCLA Luskin’s Michael Lens spoke to KCBS News’ “Ask the Expert” program about repercussions from the plummeting birth rate in the United States.

The trend is caused by several factors. Many women are more financially independent than in past generations and may choose to delay childbearing. Others, however, are deterred from starting a family due to the high cost of living.

“It’s a much more financially daunting landscape for today’s 18- to 30-year-olds starting out in the world than it was 30 years ago,” said Lens, a professor of urban planning and public policy. “It’s a really damaging thing if young people who want to have children feel financially unable to make that work.”

Advanced economies in the modern era often see declining birth rates, and the consequences include fewer people of working age who are able to hold up the social safety net for those who are retired, Lens said.

How Dowry Shapes Migration Decisions in Modern India

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New research led by Natalie Bau, professor of public policy and economics at UCLA, examines how the longstanding institution of dowry in India facilitates a son’s ability to migrate to areas with better job opportunities.

Using new survey data, the researchers studied how financial gifts from a bride’s family are reallocated within a groom’s family, playing a role in resolving frictions between parents and sons when migration occurs.

“These questions matter because they speak directly to why dowry traditions have persisted into modern times,” Bau and her colleagues wrote in a VoxDev article.

Migration disrupts traditional family support structures, in which sons live near their parents and care for them in old age, according to their research, published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.

“We develop a model in which dowry can promote migration by allowing sons to make upfront transfers to their parents and ease constraints on income sharing,” they found.

L.A. County Water Bills Rising Faster Than Inflation, UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation Finds

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Water bills in Los Angeles County have surged nearly 60% over the past decade, outpacing inflation and intensifying financial strain for low-income households, according to new research from UCLA’s Luskin Center for Innovation and the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, the Los Angeles Times reports.

Researchers examined 663 water systems across six Southern California counties and found that water affordability and quality remain major issues. Many smaller systems — particularly in Kern County, which logged more than 1,500 water quality violations in the past decade — struggle with contamination from arsenic and bacteria.

Edith de Guzman, cooperative extension water researcher at UCLA’s Luskin Center for Innovation, said rising costs highlight the need for structural solutions. “It is concerning that we have this trend of rates outpacing inflation,” de Guzman said. “Somebody has to pick up the bill. It is increasingly challenging for some of our neighbors to do that, and if we don’t think about how to generate the political will and provide assistance to those communities, we will not only fail to achieve the human right to water, but we will be leaving a lot of our neighbors behind.”

Gregory Pierce, director of UCLA’s Human Right to Water Solutions Lab, warned that rising water rates are likely to worsen over the next two decades as aging infrastructure demands costly upgrades and new contaminant regulations take effect. “We have to invest more. But the money has to come from somewhere. And I guess right now we’re just saying, ‘It comes from you, local ratepayer, so you’re on your own,’” Pierce said.

Explore the updated Southern California Community Water Systems Atlas to see how water quality and affordability vary across Southern California communities.

Helping America’s Schools Adapt to the Climate Era

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As the number of extreme heat days stretches later into the fall, many of the nation’s schools are seeking ways to adapt, but they’re often hindered by aging infrastructure and cuts to federal funding for climate upgrades.

Installing air conditioning or adding shade canopies to vast expanses of asphalt are effective but may come with red tape and a high price tag, said V. Kelly Turner, associate director of the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation.

“A lot of our schools are older and probably in need of modernization,” Turner told Time magazine. “And climate change is casting some light on the fact that they really are underfunded to do that.”

Treating schools as community centers is one strategy that could be beneficial around the country, said Turner, an associate professor of urban planning at UCLA Luskin.

“If it’s really hot, some schools just send kids home, but what if a child is going home to a home that has no air conditioning? Now we’ve sent them to a place that’s maybe just as unsafe,” she said. “But if schools are seen as more like community centers and resource hubs, then we can provide all-day-long air conditioning to 25% of the population in one site in the community.”

Failure to Vote on a Key Los Angeles Appointment

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Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, weighed in on the L.A. City Council’s failure to vote on the appointment of a Los Angeles Police Commission member.

Erroll Southers previously served as president of the civilian panel that watches over the Los Angeles Police Department. While he has been the subject of criticism, he was nominated for a new term as a commission member.

The City Council typically has 45 days to approve a new member of any city commission. Since it did not act, Southers is expected to continue in the position by default for a full five-year term because he was already serving on an interim basis, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Failing to vote on a member of one of the city’s most high-profile commissions is almost unheard of, said Yaroslavsky, a former councilman and L.A. County supervisor.

“They have responsibility to confirm or not confirm,” he said of the council. “I never understood why you would campaign for office, as hard as you campaign to get there, and not vote on something that’s as important to the public.”