A Leftward Shift in the Ever-Evolving Latino Vote

Over the past several years, Latino voters — men under 40, in particular — have shifted right, but evidence from elections during President Donald Trump’s second term suggest an abrupt correction is underway.

The recent shift to the left could have a significant effect on the politics of 2026, potentially putting control of Congress in the hands of Latino voters.

In a commentary in The Conversation, UCLA Luskin professor of public policy Gary M. Segura and faculty director Matt A. Barreto of the UCLA Voting Rights Project explore these dynamics, tapping into their expertise as political scientists and pollsters who study Hispanic voting trends.

Many Latinos are quite upset with Trump’s actions on the economy and immigration, polls show. Segura and Barreto also note that some Latinos question whether Democrats who have received their support in the past have delivered on policies that would improve the lives of their families.

“Latino voters need to believe that politicians truly care about their concerns and will work to implement a plan to create equal opportunities for the nation’s largest minority group to achieve the American dream,” Segura and Barreto write. “We believe the candidates able to make that pitch convincingly will be the most successful.”

Segura on Bread-and-Butter Issues Driving Latinos to the Polls

Media outlets reporting on the influence and priorities of the nation’s Latino electorate spoke to Gary Segura, UCLA Luskin professor of public policy and an authority on polling research.

A new nationwide UnidosUS poll that Segura helped conduct found that the cost of living is a top concern, while immigration ranks fifth.

Many Latinos feel that they can’t make ends meet, Segura told the Miami Herald. “The fear of losing their job, the inability to afford increased housing costs, the increased health care costs … none of these things have been alleviated since Trump took office,” he said.

Segura also spoke with the Los Angeles Times and Sacramento Bee. He noted that the power of California’s Latino voting bloc is growing; only 50% of the poll respondents had voted prior to 2020 but 75% said they planned to vote in 2026.

“My advice to candidates in both parties is that they need to get out there and speak to the largest constituency in the state and see what their policy needs are and act on them,” Segura said.

Understanding Key L.A. Ballot Measures Three UCLA Luskin experts weigh in on city and county measures aimed at fixing entrenched problems

By Elizabeth Kivowitz

With recent indictment charges against New York City’s mayor and the media focused on the presidential election, it’s easy to forget Los Angeles City Hall was rocked by scandal two years ago when a secret recording of City Council members discussing redistricting exposed racism and corruption at City Hall. The city and county also continue to have the largest numbers of unhoused people in the nation.

To try to address some of these challenges, Angelenos are being asked to vote on a number of ballot measures and charter amendments.

UCLA convened a panel of experts on local ballot measures in Los Angeles County (video) to shed some light on these efforts to create greater transparency, better governance and improved quality of life in the nation’s second largest city — specifically Measures A and G and Charter Amendments DD, LL and ER.

Some excerpts:

Gary Segura, professor of public policy at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, co-chaired the L.A. Governance Reform Project, a coalition of scholars and researchers who developed proposals for bringing better governance to L.A.’s halls of power. Segura spoke about Charter Amendment DD, LL and ER, which would create independent redistricting commissions for seats on the City Council (DD) and L.A. Unified School District Board (LL) and strengthen the city’s ethics commission (ER). Segura says:

“I think there was a sense that ethics and governance in Los Angeles had reached a point where there were more embarrassments than the city could reasonably continue to endure. … So after the recording was released, there was a sense, in a variety of corners in the county, in the city and in civil society, that something had to be done.”

“The independent redistricting commission [for the City Council] that we will vote on doesn’t take effect until after the 2030 census. … So those somewhat illegitimate seats are going to continue until 2032. That’ll be the first time to change it. Both L.A. city and county are 48% Latino. The city has 33% Latino representation, and the county is even lower. So that’s the background here. And the city, I think, didn’t act in good faith, so much so that the attorney general of California, Rob Bonta, is investigating to see if he can bring a case against the city to force them to redistrict sooner than the 2032 election.”

“You’ll hear talk of charter reform, and this is a classic example. Whenever a public body doesn’t wish to put specific reforms on the ballot, you create a charter reform commission because it kicks the entire thing down the road and offloads responsibility.”

Zev Yaroslavsky, executive director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, served on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors for 20 years and on the Los Angeles City Council for nearly 20 years before that. He offered insight on Measure G, a governance measure that would expand the number of county supervisors from five to nine and create an elected executive. He cited decades of failure of the Martin Luther King Jr. Community Hospital, the county’s largest, before it was temporarily shut down in 2007 by the federal government, as well as accountability and decision-making during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, as proof that the county needs an elected executive:

“There was no risk to us politically, no existential risk that if the hospital shut down that we would somehow lose our election, because there was no one person who was politically accountable to the people of L.A. County. No mayor would have allowed that to go on for 30 years with incompetence. No business would run that way. No state would run that way. Our country doesn’t run that way.”

“You had five supervisors who had five different shades of opinion about what to do in response to the pandemic. None of them have a medical degree or a public health degree. As I’ve said many times … you can negotiate with the Board of Supervisors. You can’t negotiate with the COVID-19 virus that has a mind of its own, and we got away with a lot, but we had a lot of people die. We would have a lot more people die if [Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Director] Barbara Ferrer didn’t have a backbone and was willing to use her credibility with the board. But that’s not the way it should work. She should be accountable to the mayor of the county, to the chief executive, and not negotiate about it. Let the science dictate what needs to be done.”

Michael Lens, UCLA Luskin professor of urban planning and public policy, acknowledged that voters are concerned that prior measures have not solved homelessness.

“While the existing 1/4 cent sales tax, Measure H, has funneled billions of dollars into homelessness services and housing, we can’t be sure that Measure A, a 1/2 cent sales tax, in perpetuity, will solve it either. But we do know that there is an extreme need, and that’s the trade-off that voters face.”

Segura on Democrats’ Push to Win Over Latino Voters

UCLA Luskin’s Gary Segura spoke to USA Today about efforts by Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign to reach out to Latino voters, who make up an estimated 15% of the U.S. electorate. “The first thing people have to do to win Latino votes is try,” said Segura, a professor of public policy and director of polling research. “For decades, candidates paid insufficient attention to Latino voters. I know the Harris campaign has prioritized this because of her California experience.” The article noted that the Latino electorate, which varies greatly by geography, income, education and immigration story, is crucial to Harris’ electoral chances. That’s true not just in states such as Arizona and Florida, where Latino voters make up a sizable portion of the electorate, but in states where the Latino population may be small but the margin of victory is expected to be tight — including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.


 

Wooing the Fast-Growing Latino Electorate

UCLA Luskin Public Policy Professor Gary Segura spoke to the Pennsylvania Capital-Star and public radio station WITF about the fast-growing segment of Latino voters who are a key target for 2024 elections. Economic issues, particularly concerns about better pay and the cost of prescriptions and health insurance, are a top priority for Latinos in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to a survey conducted by BSP Research, co-founded by Segura. “Latinos are often worried that their jobs don’t pay well enough, or they have to take a second job in order to make ends meet,” Segura said. He noted that Pennsylvania’s Latino electorate includes a substantial number of Puerto Ricans, a group that historically has leaned Democratic. However, many Latino voters feel that neither of the two main U.S. political parties has shown sufficient interest in connecting with them, according to the national survey conducted on behalf of UnidosUS.


 

Improving Accountability in L.A. City Government

UCLA Luskin Public Policy Professor Gary Segura appeared on LAist’s “AirTalk” to discuss recommendations for reforming governance in Los Angeles after a series of scandals that have shaken voter confidence. Segura is co-chair of the LA Governance Reform Project, a group of scholars whose final report calls for the establishment of independent redistricting commissions and an increase in the size of the City Council, Los Angeles Unified Board of Education and Los Angeles Ethics Commission. The scholars conducted extensive polling and focus groups to collect feedback reflecting “every corner of the city, every demographic group, every interest, every point of view,” Segura said. One of the recommendations — the inclusion of five at-large seats in a 25-member City Council — would “increase the number of ways people can have their voice heard” and guard against abuses of power, he added. The reform coalition urges that the measures be put before voters in November 2024; if passed, new districts could be established for the 2028 elections.


 

Stalled Momentum in Reforming L.A. Governance

UCLA Luskin Public Policy Professor Gary Segura spoke to LAist about a delay in the decision to move forward with reforms at L.A. City Hall. Segura is co-chair of the L.A. Governance Reform Project, a coalition of scholars who came together in response to a series of corruption scandals that have plagued the city. Their recommendations for better governance include increasing the number of seats on the L.A. City Council, currently made up of 15 members representing 4 million Angelenos. “One of the advantages of a larger council is that it makes it possible for smaller communities to maintain a voice,” Segura said. Council members are debating the anticipated impact of the proposed change on the delivery of city services, as well as on the balance of power between the council and the mayor. The decision to delay action and possibly hand the question over to a yet-to-be-created charter reform commission has stalled momentum and is deeply concerning, Segura said.


 

Reforming the L.A. City Council to Give Diverse Communities a Voice

UCLA Luskin’s Gary Segura spoke to the L.A. Times about a proposal to expand the Los Angeles City Council in an effort to boost representation and discourage unethical behavior. Nearly a century has passed since L.A. residents approved the current number of council districts, 15. New proposals would increase that number to somewhere between 21 and 31. “Los Angeles is a complex city, far more diverse than most cities in the United States,” said Segura, a professor of public policy. “With huge numbers of ethnic and racial populations, it has become increasingly difficult to give different communities a voice.” Any change would require voter approval. Opponents of council expansion often cite concerns about higher costs, but “the truth of the matter is we spend very little on governance in Los Angeles,” Segura said. Even if the council more than doubles in size, the cost of staff, office space, cars and other needs would represent less than 1% of Los Angeles’ annual $13-billion budget.


 

Segura on Expanding Representation and Accountability in L.A.

News outlets covering testimony before the L.A. City Council’s ad hoc committee on government reform carried the comments of Gary Segura, professor of public policy at UCLA Luskin. Segura is co-chair of the L.A. Governance Reform Project, a group of university scholars drafting recommendations to increase transparency and accountability at L.A. City Hall. A preliminary report from the project called for several reforms, including the creation of 10 additional City Council seats for a total of 25, including four at-large seats. “The purpose of that was to have an additional cohort of members of the council who had a citywide constituency and therefore were interested in advancing the interests of everyone in the city,” Segura said. He added that the Governance Reform Project is continuing research into the value of at-large seats and conducting further conversations with community-based organizations and members of the voting rights community. The group expects to issue its final report in November.


A Sweeping Proposal to Reform L.A. City Governance

News organizations including the Los Angeles Times, Daily News and Associated Press covered a package of recommendations issued by the Los Angeles Governance Reform Project, co-chaired by UCLA Luskin Professor Gary Segura. The advisory group, created in response to a series of corruption scandals that have plagued L.A. City Hall, called for 10 additional seats on the City Council for a total of 25; two independent redistricting commissions; and a more powerful ethics commission. “As we speak today, there are 260,000 souls in every City Council district in Los Angeles. To say that this stretches the definition of local representation as it was understood by our founders would be an understatement,” Segura said. He called the proposals in the group’s interim report a “starting point, intended to spark a meaningful and actionable conversation that will drive reform forward.”