Segura on Rise in Latino Support for Trump

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UCLA Luskin Dean Gary Segura spoke to KQED’s California Report about Latino support for President Trump, which increased both nationally and in California compared to 2016, according to the American Election Eve Poll. While the overwhelming majority of Latinos backed the Democratic ticket, support for Trump increased from 18% to 27% nationally and from 16% to 22% in California, according to the poll. Segura, a lead pollster for the survey, said one reason for the shift was that Democrat Joe Biden was not as well known among Latino households as the Clinton family was. More significantly, he said, Democrats didn’t do enough to engage these voters in California and other non-battleground states. “There’s an important lesson here. I think the one place where President Trump did invest in Latinos is in South Florida, and he was rewarded for that,” Segura said. “So investment matters, being on the ground matters.” 

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Akee on Concerns About a Census Undercount of Native Americans

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In a U.S. News and World Report article, Associate Professor of Public Policy Randall Akee expressed concern about the way U.S. Census formulas count Native American communities. The 2020 census count closed on Oct. 15, two weeks earlier than the COVID-adjusted deadline of Oct. 31. Many experts are concerned that the early closure will exacerbate undercounting of Native American communities, which rely on a complete and accurate census count for federal funding and proportionate representation in voting districts. In 2010, Native Americans living on reservations were undercounted by 4.9%, more than twice the rate of other racial minorities. Over the last year, the Census Bureau has been tinkering with its formula, which aims to provide accurate data and protect individual privacy but also increases the risk of undercounting small populations. Akee explained that, despite improvements to the way the bureau handles Native American communities, concern remains. “I take them at their word that they’re really trying to remedy the problem,” he concluded.

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Manville on Steep Decline in Bus Ridership

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The New York Times spoke to Associate Professor of Urban Planning Michael Manville for a piece on the trends behind the yearslong slide in bus ridership in many U.S. cities. In addition to demographic shifts and the changing nature of work, Manville pointed to the rise of Craigslist, which has made used cars easier to find and cheaper to buy. In California, he added, a state law granting driver’s licenses to undocumented immigrants may have reduced the pool of transit riders. Manville recommended making the true costs of driving more pronounced by raising prices for gas, parking and driving on congested roads, while building a system that gives advantages to public transit. “At the end of the day, we may never know what is driving this decline,” Manville said. “But I guarantee you that if you took a lane of Vermont Avenue in Los Angeles and gave it only to the bus, ridership would go up.”

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As Election Results Roll In, UCLA Luskin Experts Offer Insights

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As the vote count from the 2020 election stretched into days, media outlets called on experts from UCLA Luskin to offer context and expertise. Public Policy Professor Mark Peterson spoke to Elite Daily for a story on President Trump’s swift declaration of victory, which he called “the most serious assault on our democratic institutions of any president, at least in modern times.” Sonja Diaz, executive director of the Latino Policy and Politics Initiative, offered insights on KTLA5 News, Peacock TV and radio programs including KPCC’s Air Talk (beginning at minute 19:30). Diaz spoke about a wide range of topics, including the Latino electorate’s impact in Florida and Arizona as well as on local ballot measures. Los Angeles Initiative Director Zev Yaroslavsky told KCAL9 News (beginning at minute 3:00) that the close presidential race vote signals a deep tribalism in the nation. “However it ends,” he said, “it’s going to be a very difficult road ahead for the country.” Yaroslavsky also told the Los Angeles Times that challenger Nithya Raman’s lead in a Los Angeles City Council race is “a political earthquake.”

 

Katz on California’s Spotty Voting Rights History

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Alisa Belinkoff Katz, associate director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, wrote an op-ed for the Los Angeles Times that laid out California’s spotty history when it comes to free access to the ballot box. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, the state systematically discriminated against groups including Chinese immigrants and the working poor, she wrote. By 1960, the state had veered away from tactics such as arduous registration requirements, literacy tests and voter roll purges and entered a more inclusive era. While California now offers early voting, vote by mail, internet registration, same-day registration, a “motor voter” program and other policies designed to encourage voting, “the California electorate remains older, whiter and wealthier than the population at large,” wrote Katz, lead author of a recent study on the evolution of voter access in the state. “Until our democracy gives voice to all segments of society, we still have work to do.”

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Peterson on Health Care as a Voter Priority

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Public Policy Professor Mark Peterson spoke to NPR about the role that access to health care has played in the 2020 election. Republicans who previously pushed for repealing and replacing Obamacare have skirted the issue this year, as voters have expressed overwhelming support for protections such as guaranteed coverage for those with preexisting medical conditions. Opposing the Affordable Care Act is “political suicide” in this election cycle, Peterson said. “There doesn’t seem to be any real political advantage anymore.” He also called the latest effort to strike down the ACA, which is headed to the U.S. Supreme Court, an “extraordinary stretch, even among many conservative legal scholars.” Peterson was also cited in a Kaiser Health News story on the election’s impact on California’s progressive health care ambitions and in a piece by the Spanish news agency EFE comparing President Trump’s crowded campaign rallies to Democrat Joe Biden’s physically distant events.

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Zepeda-Millán on the Death Toll at the U.S.-Mexico Border

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Associate Professor of Public Policy Chris Zepeda-Millán spoke to the Independent about the state of the U.S.-Mexico border wall as President Trump nears the end of his fourth year in office. Trump had promised to build a wall spanning the entire border; as of mid-October, about 370 miles of border barriers had been erected. At around $15 billion for the total project, it is projected to be the most expensive wall ever built, the article noted. After a decline in migrant apprehensions in late 2016 and 2017, immigration and apprehensions spiked again after the wall was slow to materialize. This contributed to an increase in the number of migrants who died while crossing the border during the first three years of the Trump administration. “The most devastating effect will undoubtedly be the increasing of migrant deaths as they get pushed further and further into dangerous deserts and isolated mountain areas,” Zepeda-Millán said. “That’s literally our stated policy.”

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Peterson on Scenarios for a Messy Election Aftermath

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Public Policy Professor Mark Peterson spoke to Elite Daily about a post-election scenario that has raised concerns: What would happen if President Trump lost reelection but refused to give up power? Trump has made multiple comments suggesting that he would not commit to stepping down if he lost the election. According to Peterson, this scenario is highly unlikely. Election results are verified through the Electoral College and then declared by Congress, he explained. An incumbent president who fails to win a second term yet refuses to leave the White House may be escorted off the premises by the newly elected president’s Secret Service detail once power changes hands on Inauguration Day. Peterson added that Trump’s claims of voter fraud are baseless and “undermine the confidence that people have in our institutions and in our elected officials.” And he expressed concern about potential violence from informal right-wing militias who might be triggered into action by a Trump loss.

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After the Pandemic, a Focus on Transportation Equity

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An article in the Hill on the post-pandemic future of public transportation featured research presented at this year’s UCLA Lake Arrowhead Symposium. The virtual learning series, hosted by the Institute of Transportation Studies at UCLA Luskin, explored how the transportation sector can recover from the economic shock of COVID-19 in an equitable manner. The Hill cited two scholars who presented research during the symposium. Deborah Salon of Arizona State University shared results from a survey finding that many employees may prefer to continue working from home even after pandemic restrictions are lifted, decreasing commuter demand for transit options. Giovanni Circella of UC Davis pointed to a “massive shift” toward car travel among those who have reduced their reliance on public transit. “In the other direction, among those reducing driving, pretty much nobody is increasing the use of transit,” he said. 

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Gilens on American Attitudes Toward Welfare

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A Fortune article summarized Public Policy Chair Martin Gilens’ analysis of American attitudes toward welfare in order to better understand the effect of the pandemic on the country. New studies have found that the poorest Americans have gotten poorer during the pandemic, despite unemployment benefit programs such as the $2.2 trillion CARES Act. On the other side of the U.S.-Canada border, Canadians received $2,000 deposited directly into their bank accounts days after filling out an online form as part of the Canadian Economic Recovery Benefit. Canada’s social safety net and collectivist mindset have supported Canadians during the pandemic, resulting in fewer deaths and COVID-19 infections compared to the U.S. after adjusting for population size differences, the article stated. It cited Gilens’ book “Why Americans Hate Welfare,” which argues that individualism, economic self-interest, the trope of the “undeserving” welfare recipient and racial discrimination each contribute to American attitudes on wealth redistribution through taxation.

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