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$7.5 Million Federal Grant to Establish Mobility Center of Excellence at UCLA

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The Federal Highway Administration, an agency within the U.S. Department of Transportation, has awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant to establish the Center of Excellence on New Mobility and Automated Vehicles. The award will support research on the impacts of new mobility technologies on the evolving transportation system when deployed at scale. “Digital connectivity, automation and electrification have dramatically changed the way we transport, both in terms of how people travel and how goods are delivered,” said Jiaqi Ma, who will direct the new center. “We will study the impacts of these new technologies and how they can be better leveraged to improve equitable access to transportation and job participation.” Ma is faculty associate director of the UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies, where he leads the New Mobility program area. He is also an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the UCLA Samueli School of Engineering, where the new center will be based. Scheduled to launch in November, the Mobility Center of Excellence, as it will be informally known, will assess the anticipated long-term impact of new mobility technologies and services on land use, real estate and urban design; transportation system optimization including resilience, security and reliability; equitable access to mobility and job participation; and the cost-effective allocation of public resources. The center will include researchers from UCLA Samueli, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs and UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, along with other universities and government and nonprofit groups.

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Millard-Ball on Who Deserves Carbon Credits

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UCLA Luskin’s Adam Millard-Ball, professor of urban planning and acting director of the UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies, commented in an MIT Technology Review article about a California-based car manufacturer seeking to earn carbon credits for its electric vehicle chargers. Rivian, producer of high-end trucks and SUVs, has applied to one of the world’s largest certifiers of carbon credits to retain “all environmental attributes” from the use of its chargers, the article revealed. Residential chargers are included along with the company’s own charging stations and third-party site hosts under the company’s plan, which Millard-Ball doubts would be noticed by purchasers or likely pointed out by sellers. “If someone is buying a charger and the company is selling away the good so someone else can pollute more, I don’t think that’s in the spirit of the marketing or the branding or the motivations of many people who buy electric vehicles,” he said.

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Callahan on Cleaning Up Polluting Port Traffic

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Colleen Callahan, co-executive director of the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, spoke to Bloomberg News about new business models that could speed the transition to zero-emission freight trucks at California’s ports. Callahan co-authored a study of the heavy-duty diesel trucks that serve Southern California ports, which contribute to dangerous air quality in surrounding low-income communities. “A lot of experts call it the diesel death zone,” Callahan said. “You have these kids going to school adjacent to rail yards and freeways where all these diesel trucks are transporting goods from the ports.” As one result, rates of asthma among children living near the ports are particularly high. New policies are expected to phase out diesel trucks and replace them with electric vehicles, but there are challenges involving cost, charging infrastructure, and a complicated landscape of rebates and incentives. Startup companies are now emerging to provide electric trucks to small businesses on a subscription or leasing plan.

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Pierce on Misconceptions About Prop. 30

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Gregory Pierce, co-director of the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, spoke to Vice about Proposition 30, the measure to fight climate change by taxing the rich, which was defeated at the polls. The California initiative, which would have added a 1.75% tax to income over $2 million to fund the transition to electric vehicles and fight wildfires, was opposed by a coalition that called Prop. 30 a scheme by the ride-hailing company Lyft to secure a huge taxpayer subsidy. Pierce said that characterization was inaccurate. “There’s nothing about Lyft drivers or Lyft, or anything in particular benefiting them except that Lyft drivers have vehicles like other folks who might benefit from a lot more money for EVs,” he said. Pierce noted, however, that the measure’s lack of clarity on how revenues would be spent was a legitimate concern. The need to reduce emissions is urgent, but money spent on the wrong programs would not help the crisis.

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Matute on Measuring E-Scooters’ Carbon Footprint

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A Wired article assessing the green credentials of electric scooters cited Juan Matute, deputy director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UCLA Luskin. Measuring the full environmental impact of e-scooters is a complicated task that must factor in how and where they’re operating, Matute said. Over an e-scooter’s lifecycle, carbon emissions come from the production of its materials and components; the manufacturing process; the shipping of the scooters to wherever they’re going to be used; the collecting, charging and redistributing of the scooters; and their disposal. To bring down their carbon footprint, some manufacturers are pursuing improvements to their equipment and operations, including developing scooters with a longer lifespan and introducing swappable batteries, which reduces the number of trips required to keep the fleets powered.

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DeShazo on Future of Clean Vehicles in the U.S.

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JR DeShazo, director of the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, was featured in a Popular Science article about General Motors’ announcement that it plans to eliminate emissions from passenger vehicles by 2035. “This is a seismic event that is hard to overstate in its importance to America’s transition to zero-emission vehicles,” DeShazo said. The company hopes to expand its electric vehicle fleet to 30 all-electric models and have 40% of the entire fleet composed of battery-electric cars by 2025. According to DeShazo, these plans are the strongest thus far to come from a traditional American automaker. While international companies like Volvo and BMW have announced similar goals, the U.S. industry has lagged behind. GM’s statement is going to force other automakers to respond, which will stimulate competition in the industry, DeShazo explained.  However, he added, the adoption of zero-emission vehicles must go hand in hand with investment in renewable energy sources in order to effectively combat climate change.

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DeShazo on Future Demand for Electric Vehicles

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JR DeShazo, director of UCLA’s Luskin Center for Innovation, was featured in an ABC News article discussing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on electric vehicle sales. Electric vehicles, or EVs, are already more expensive than their gasoline-powered equivalents, and widespread economic insecurity as a result of the pandemic has made Americans less likely to buy one during this time, even if they can afford it. DeShazo, a professor of public policy and urban planning, predicted that the pandemic may usher in new environmental policies around the country. “A lot of states are talking about sustainable stimulus package incentives for vehicles that would include used and hybrid vehicles, charging equipment at home and at work, and subsidies for clean transportation,” he said. “In some ways the pandemic has made people appreciate life without all this car-created pollution. It has changed how people think about EVs.”

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COVID-19 Pandemic Could Cost California Transportation Billions in Revenue New research highlights need for policymakers to prepare for a future shortfall

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California could lose up to $20 billion in transportation revenue over the next 10 years because of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to research released May 12 by the Mineta Transportation Institute, or MTI.

Researchers Asha Weinstein Agrawal of MTI at San Jose State University and Hannah King and Martin Wachs of UCLA Luskin projected how much revenue will be generated over the next decade by state taxes on fuel purchases and fees on vehicle ownership. COVID-19 has reduced those revenues substantially because people are driving less and therefore buying less fuel.

Projected total revenue varied according to different economic recovery scenarios examined by the researchers.

“Under a worst-case scenario, a slow economic recovery could cause California to receive 17% less revenue through 2030 than the state would have received without COVID-19,” said Agrawal, the director of MTI’s National Transportation Finance Center. The projected revenue for the slow-recovery scenario is $98 billion, compared to a projected $118 billion without the pandemic.

State policy choices could impact projected revenues, according to the study. The researchers identified a recovery scenario that could generate $121 billion, a 3% gain, thanks to a swift and complete economic recovery coupled with policies to encourage Californians to purchase electric vehicles.

“California policymakers are hastily planning for a future with less-than-anticipated revenue,” said Wachs, a professor emeritus of urban planning at UCLA and a researcher at its Institute of Transportation Studies. “The scenarios in this study are not predictions of what will happen, but with so much uncertainty about the future, they help policymakers ask important ‘what if’ kinds of questions.”

The study focused on transportation revenue collected by the state thanks to a package of taxes and fees established in 2017 by Senate Bill 1. This revenue comes from gasoline and diesel fuel taxes, an annual fee on vehicles with the rate based on vehicle value, and an annual fee for zero-emission vehicles.

The report did not include transportation funds in California that are raised locally through transit fares, tolls, sales taxes and property taxes. Nor did it include any federal funding that would aid in transportation recovery.

A shortfall in state transportation revenue would trickle down to drivers.

“Revenue shortfalls will likely result in both reduced maintenance and delayed capital investments,” Agrawal said. “Drivers will have to wait longer for planned improvements like replacing outdated bridges and rehabilitating freeways.”

The researchers modeled scenarios based on transportation-specific variables that are most likely to be affected by COVID-19, including fuel consumption, the number of registered petroleum-powered and electric vehicles, and the price of cars. They also projected potential revenue from possible government policies to stimulate the market, such as tax credits to encourage vehicle purchases.

Comparing them to a baseline of what was expected before the COVID-19 emergency, the researchers examined five recovery scenarios: 1) slow, 2) moderate, 3) moderate with a stagnated vehicle market, 4) moderate with an electric-vehicle stimulus, and 5) fast with an electric-vehicle stimulus.

The study was funded by the Mineta Transportation Institute at the request of the California Transportation Commission. The researchers were scheduled to present their findings during a virtual webinar on May 14.

The lead author of the study was Agrawal. King is a doctoral student in urban planning at UCLA.

Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Could be Ground Zero for Zero-Emission Trucks Electric trucks will be financially viable as early as the 2020s, a UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation report finds

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By Colleen Callahan

The two San Pedro Bay ports — Los Angeles and Long Beach — form the largest container port complex in North America. While an important economic engine for Southern California, port-related activity is one of the largest contributors to air pollution in a region that regularly violates air quality standards.

Concerned about the public health and climate impacts of drayage trucking — which moves cargo from the ports to train yards, warehouses and distribution centers — the mayors of Los Angeles and Long Beach set a goal to transition the fleet to 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2035. A new report from the UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, however, finds that an accelerated transition starting in the 2020s could be both feasible and advantageous.

The UCLA researchers analyzed the significant challenges and opportunities of replacing diesel drayage trucks with zero-emission trucks, specifically battery electric trucks, beginning in the 2020s. One advantage of an earlier transition is a quicker reduction in tailpipe emissions, they found. Unlike current diesel trucks, zero-emission trucks do not directly emit any regulated pollutants and can be fueled by renewable energy sources like wind or solar.

However, there are barriers to adoption of battery electric zero-emission trucks by the drayage industry. The UCLA report finds that current constraints include nascent technology not yet proven in drayage operations; limited vehicle range; high capital costs for trucks and charging infrastructure; uncertainty about which entity would shoulder the upfront costs; and space and time constraints for vehicle charging.

“Despite these challenges, we conclude that there is significant potential for zero-emission trucks to be used in drayage service,” said James Di Filippo, the lead researcher on the UCLA study. “Operationally, the range of early-state battery electric trucks is suitable for most drayage needs at the ports.”

The technology is advancing quickly. One manufacturer already has a zero-emission battery electric truck on the market, while five other leading manufacturers plan to do so by 2021. New entrants into the battery electric truck market expect to bring longer ranges and lower costs.

“We made a surprising finding: When incorporating incentives and low-carbon fuel credits, the total cost of ownership for a battery electric truck is less than near-zero-emission natural gas trucks,” Di Filippo said. “Even more surprising is that battery electric trucks can even be less expensive than used diesel trucks. This supports our finding that, even in the short and medium term, there is opportunity to electrify a meaningful portion of the drayage fleet at the ports.”

The Clean Trucks Program, adopted by the two ports in 2007, successfully spurred the replacement of the oldest, dirtiest diesel trucks in the fleet with cleaner diesel and natural gas models. UCLA researchers expect another nearly complete turnover of the drayage fleet in the 2020s. This presents a tremendous opportunity to transition to zero-emission trucks.

As demonstrated by the 2007 program, the strongest lever in the ports’ policy toolbox is the ability to assess differentiated fees to trucks entering the ports based on compliance with emission standards. The ports’ new clean truck program is set to differentiate between near-zero-emission trucks and zero-emission trucks by 2035. However, additional incentives to switch to zero-emission trucks from the start of the program could support a transition to the cleanest trucks sooner, the researchers concluded.

A swift move to zero-emission trucks could avoid the expense and disruption of two sharp technology transitions — one to near-zero in the 2020s and then to zero-emission in the 2030s. Meanwhile, early adopters could take advantage of current generous state and regional incentives for zero-emission trucks that make battery electric trucks less expensive to own and operate than all alternatives.

The UCLA report analyzed other options that the ports could pursue, including investing in technology that allows electric trucks to specialize in routes that suit their range. It also recommends that the ports collaborate with stakeholders — such as utilities and air regulators — to coordinate a wraparound strategy that provides technical assistance to trucking companies and drivers.

Other recommendations target incentives adopted by utilities and air quality agencies, which the researchers said could be updated to meet evolving needs.

The report by the Luskin Center for Innovation, which unites UCLA scholars and civic leaders to solve environmental challenges, was made possible by two separate funding sources: a partnership grant from California’s Strategic Growth Council, and members of the Trade, Health and Environmental Impact Project (THE Impact Project).