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New Transit Doesn’t Alleviate Traffic, Manville Says

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Associate Professor of Urban Planning Michael Manville spoke to the San Diego Union-Tribune about the anticipated effects of a new trolley line in San Diego. The 11-mile trolley runs from Old Town to UTC mall in La Jolla and is expected to carry 20,000 daily riders in the coming years. While the trolley line may seem like an ideal solution to reduce traffic congestion in the area, Manville explained that all the cars the trolley removes from the freeway “will almost certainly get replaced by backfilling prompted by reduced congestion” as open space on the freeway is filled by new commuters. “It’s a very established empirical fact that new transit doesn’t alleviate traffic,” Manville said. “It’s self-undermining, because congestion is the No. 1 thing that blunts demand.” He agreed that the new transit line is good for the economy and the region but noted that “you need to be realistic about what transit can and can’t do.”

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Manville on Showdown Over California Housing Laws

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An NBC News report on a looming showdown over new California laws aimed at building more housing included insights from Associate Professor of Urban Planning Michael Manville. The laws going into effect on Jan. 1 include Senate Bill 9, which will allow property owners to construct more than one unit on lots previously reserved for single-family homes. Opponents say the laws will strip cities and counties of control over zoning and will not ensure that new units will be affordable. A proposed constitutional amendment that would undo several of the laws may appear on the November 2022 ballot. The debate illustrates how difficult it is to address the state’s affordable housing crisis. “It took a long time for us to get into this hole, and it’s going to take a long time to get out,” Manville said. “It’s going to take some time to see so much construction that rents are going to fall.”

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Diaz on Mobilizing Voters Around Padilla

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Sonja Diaz, executive director of the Latino Policy and Politics Initiative, was featured in a Politico article discussing the importance of maximizing voter turnout in the 2022 midterm elections. Democrats are hoping to leverage the popularity of Sen. Alex Padilla, California’s first Latino senator, to increase voter turnout and deliver Democratic wins in districts with high Latino populations. “Sen. Padilla is going to be central in not only ensuring that Latino voters who were mobilized in the ’21 recall election are going to be primed for the ’22 midterms, but getting other voters across the country out, too,” Diaz explained. Nuestro PAC is leading a statewide campaign to elect Padilla and flip five congressional districts by targeting Latino voters. “There’s a need for the Democratic Party to coalesce around Sen. Padilla’s future, ensuring he gets the relevant face-time and exposure to create a national donor base,” Diaz said. “It’s essential to increase enthusiasm in the party.”

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Tilly Examines Impact of Inflation

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Urban Planning Chair Chris Tilly was featured in a Sacramento Bee article discussing the impact of inflation on the 2022 midterm elections. Prices have increased 5.4% in the last year, one of the steepest rises since 2008, and California now has the highest per-gallon gas price in the country. According to Tilly, higher prices at the pump hurt agriculture-heavy regions like the San Joaquin Valley more than any other areas of the state. “A lot of the agricultural valley workforces are relatively low-income, which means that they’re ill-equipped to deal with higher prices,” Tilly explained. Businesses struggling to handle the costs of inflation are more likely to raise the costs of their goods and less likely to increase the wages of their workers. “If I’m an agricultural worker, and possibly even an agricultural worker who’s dealing with supply chain problems in their own industry, then I’ve got a problem,” he said.

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Peterson on Power of Health Care Industry

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Professor of Public Policy Mark Peterson  spoke to California Healthline about Gov. Gavin Newsom’s pledge to lower health care costs in California. During his campaign for governor, Newsom promised to lead California’s single-payer movement, eliminate private insurance and decrease the amount that providers are paid. Polls show that the majority of California voters agree on the importance of making health care more affordable. Powerful interests in the health care industry have pushed back against legislative efforts to reduce health care costs, however, and the COVID-19 pandemic further strengthened their influence. “There’s no question this industry has power. The real question is what they do with it,” Peterson said. ““They’re getting wins, and important ones.” During the recent recall election, health care executives helped keep Newsom in office by supporting his campaign. Newsom will likely face pressure from both sides when he runs for reelection next year.

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Grant to Support LPPI Research on Strengthening Latino Workforce

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The UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative (LPPI) has received $750,000 from The James Irvine Foundation to support data collection and research on the impacts of COVID-19 on Latino workers in California. The grant will also support the development of a policy toolkit to improve the capacity of California lawmakers, business leaders and advocates to champion recovery efforts that strengthen the state’s core workforce. “Latinos are the current and future workforce of California and the road to prosperity runs through them. Yet we often lack the data necessary to make the best policy decisions and targeted investments to uplift Latinos,” LPPI Executive Director Sonja Diaz said. “Opportunity and economic mobility for California’s Latinos is necessary for us all to thrive now and far into the future.” Latinos are the largest ethnic/racial group in the country, and a plurality in California, so understanding their contributions to the nation’s social and economic fabric is imperative, Diaz said. She added that providing opportunities to make a living wage and build new skills in a changing economy is critical to a strong recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Irvine Foundation grant will support data collection focusing on eight areas: demography and population change; climate change and the environment; economic opportunity and social mobility; education; health; housing;  child welfare;  and voting rights and political representation. “We know that Latinos are essential to California’s future,” said Virginia Mosqueda, senior program officer at the Irvine Foundation. “Supporting UCLA LPPI helps ensure our state leads the nation in offering Latino workers access to economic opportunity.”

Monkkonen on California’s Student Housing Needs

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Associate Professor of Urban Planning and Public Policy Paavo Monkkonen spoke to CalMatters about the $500 million in state funding allotted by Gov. Gavin Newsom for affordable student housing. The housing crisis in California has also impacted students, and the funding is meant to help public colleges and universities build affordable housing or renovate existing property through a grant process. Monkkonen noted that the housing aid is a good use of state money. “Unlike grant money or financial aid, housing is a one-time expense that pays dividends because it can be used repeatedly,” he explained. However, experts have agreed that the $500 million package will not be enough to create all of the necessary housing units for public students across California. “A better system would be one in which there’s a long-term plan to grow the stock sufficiently that everyone that wants to live there, can,” Monkkonen said.

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Diaz on How Latino Voters Were Mobilized to Help Block Recall

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NPR’s All Things Considered spoke with Sonja Diaz, executive director of the Latino Policy and Politics Initiative at UCLA Luskin, about California’s Latino electorate. The state’s Latinos skew younger and more Democratic than Latinos in many other regions, Diaz said, but “by and large, Latino voters care about the same things in California that they do in Texas — good jobs and good health care.” Civil society organizations, rather than the Democratic Party, did the bulk of the work to get out the vote to block the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom, she said. “The fact that these voters came out, it was because of these community-based organizers that really put a message that was distinct from either party,” a message that focused on values steeped in data science and strong policy rather than xenophobia, Diaz said. “That was very persuasive to these voters. And by and large, now they’re likely voters going into the 2022 midterm elections.”

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Claims of Voter Fraud Are Unfounded, Yaroslavsky Says

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Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin, appeared on Los Angeles news stations covering Californians’ rejection of an effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. The governor’s opponents suggested that the election results may have been tainted by fraud, an accusation that Yaroslavsky called “pernicious.” “If there’s evidence, bring it on and let’s deal with it. But if you don’t have the evidence, then keep your mouth shut,” he told CBS2. Yaroslavsky also discussed possible reforms to the state’s recall process, such as elevating the elected lieutenant governor or holding a separate runoff election. On KCAL9, he noted that mail-in ballots sent to every eligible voter led to a huge turnout for the off-year election. “People are more engaged in the political process now than they have been in quite some time,” he said. “You have a new generation of people who know what the stakes are and that elections have consequences for them individually and for the society.”

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Watch the KCAL9 segment

Newton on Forces Shaping California’s Recall Vote

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Jim Newton, editor of UCLA’s Blueprint magazine, spoke to the New York Times and Washington Post about California’s recall election, which ended in a decisive victory for Gov. Gavin Newsom. “There was never an intelligent rationale for this recall, and the people saw through it,” Newton told the Post. “And he got his people out, and that of course was the great fear heading into the vote, that too many Democrats would take the outcome for granted.” The New York Times piece focused on calls for reforming California’s centuries-old laws on recalls and referendums. Any changes are likely to be opposed by Republicans, who see the tradition of direct democracy as a key avenue of influence in a Democrat-led state. Newton commented, “The general premise that the initiative, referendum and recall are intended to curb the influence of powerful special interests has been tipped entirely on its head and it has now become the tool of special interests.”

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